Bitcoin price prediction: Will $78,900 resistance cap BTC gains?

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Bitcoin rises 0.39% to $77,208.16 today

Highlights

Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1 billion in recent outflows, led by $648 million in redemptions on May 18, dampening institutional demand and liquidity.
Despite negative sentiment, long-term investors absorbed selling pressure by accumulating Bitcoin, while a minor protocol exploit raised technical awareness but had limited market impact.
Technicals indicate short-term downside as Bitcoin trades below major moving averages and oscillators signal oversold conditions; anticipated range is $74,400 to $79,500 with a bearish bias.

Institutional outflows pressure sentiment as long-term holders offset supply

Significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, including approximately $648 million in net redemptions on May 18 led by BlackRock’s IBIT and total ETF sales exceeding $1 billion in recent days, have directly reduced institutional demand and market liquidity for Bitcoin. While this wave of outflows has pressured overall sentiment, long-term holders have continued to accumulate, helping to absorb circulating supply and contributing some stability against broader market headwinds. Additionally, a recent exploit of the Echo Protocol has resulted in increased technical scrutiny from market participants, though its impact was mild relative to major capital flows.

Mixed technical signals as immediate resistance meets hesitant momentum

BTC’s price action is currently situated between key technical reference points: it is trading below the SMA-20 at $79,420.92 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $78,893.76, but remains above the SMA-50 at $75,846.13. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate resistance, while the SMA-200 at $81,299.75 serves as a distant ceiling. On the momentum front, MACD issues a strong buy signal, whereas the ADX reading only suggests a mild trend. Oscillators including RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI all indicate oversold conditions, with BBP signaling continued seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator shows strong sell momentum, reinforcing a hesitant and potentially choppy intraday backdrop due to the divergence between bullish and oversold signals.

Sideways bias persists as breakout odds remain low

In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to move within a volatility band between $74,400 and $79,500 over the next five sessions. The probability of a sustained breakout to the upside is low, with less than a 20% chance according to current indicator readings. The base case scenario indicates sideways movement in this corridor, while a bullish move would need a confirmed breakout above resistance near $78,900. A break below medium-term support at $75,800, and especially below $74,400, would increase the risk of further downside pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ongoing ETF outflows as a clear signal of weakened institutional appetite for Bitcoin. He notes that steady accumulation by long-term holders offers only partial support in the face of reduced demand and lingering technical headwinds. Kharitonov believes that as long as resistance near $78,900 caps price action, the base case is for sideways or lower movement. "Until we see renewed inflows or a clear break above $78,900, I remain defensive and expect choppy trading to persist."

Previously it was reported that major U.S. banks, including Bank of America, continued to maintain significant positions in crypto ETFs, signaling ongoing institutional interest in Bitcoin despite shifting market dynamics. Against the current backdrop of substantial ETF outflows and choppy sentiment, traders should closely monitor whether Bitcoin can sustain support above $75,800, as a breach could accelerate downside risk beyond the established volatility band.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.