Solana price prediction: Can $79 support hold? SOL trades down 1.46%

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Solana slides 1.46% today to $81.82

Highlights

Institutional investors added over $115 million to Solana-focused ETFs in May, marking four consecutive weeks of net inflows.
Reduced futures open interest and a shift toward spot ETF demand reflect declining speculative leverage and increased direct ownership.
Solana remains under firm selling pressure, trading below significant technical levels with indicators showing a bearish trend and expected range of $79.00 to $85.50 over the next week.

Institutional inflows rise as speculative leverage drops and supply absorbed

Institutional demand for Solana was evidenced by over $115 million in net inflows to SOL-focused ETFs during May, representing four consecutive weeks of positive institutional engagement and increasing demand for the asset. At the same time, futures open interest fell by about 30%, indicating lower speculative leverage, while spot ETF purchases accounted for $113 million in new capital, allowing buyers to absorb available supply. The Solana community also debated a proposed rise in token burns and its effects on validator economics, reflecting ongoing attention to network incentives and supply dynamics, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum weakens as intraday range holds under resistance

SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200 are at $85.89, $86.39, and $104.48, respectively, with Ichimoku Kijun providing immediate resistance at $89.21. Momentum indicators show broad weakness: MACD signals a strong sell, ADX is weak at 14.61, and the Awesome Oscillator remains negative. RSI reads 40.31 and Stoch RSI is deeply oversold at 16.57, while CCI is also negative (–89.81). Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at –0.79 confirms persistent intraday selling dominance. No divergence is present across oscillators, and intraday action is locked in a narrow $1.28 range ($81.75–$83.03), with volatility remaining subdued.

Downside risk grows as sellers keep short-term control

Over the next five days, SOL is likely to trade within a volatility band between $79.00 and $85.50. The probability of a move above current levels remains low, with sellers retaining control and further downside more probable. Baseline expectations favor consolidation under resistance, while a bullish break would require a close above $89.21 to shift the technical outlook. A drop below $79.00 would expose SOL to accelerated declines as selling momentum persists.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees steady institutional support for Solana, as shown by sustained ETF inflows and constructive on-chain debate. He notes that reduced leverage signals a healthier market structure, but short-term price action remains pressured by persistent sellers. Karapetjanc believes this moment favors patient accumulation rather than aggressive positioning. He expects upside potential to grow if resistance at $89.21 is cleared. "While sellers hold the upper hand near-term, growing institutional interest and improving fundamentals keep Solana on my watchlist for a possible breakout above key resistance levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was struggling with persistent bearish pressure driven by technical weakness and regulatory uncertainties. The current outlook reinforces this view, as continued seller dominance and subdued volatility suggest traders should monitor for a decisive move below $79.00 that could trigger additional downside momentum.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.