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CryptoQuant outlines three scenarios for Bitcoin price trajectory
With Bitcoin hovering around the $95,000 mark, analytics platform CryptoQuant has released a new forecast outlining three potential price scenarios for the cryptocurrency over the next six months.
The projections, based on key on-chain indicators such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, offer insight into whether the current uptrend could turn into a full-blown rally—or reverse course.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin enters the early rally zone, according to CryptoQuant metrics.
- Optimistic scenario targets $150K–$175K if breakout occurs.
- Base case predicts consolidation between $90K and $110K.
- Correction to $70K–$85K remains a possibility but less likely.
Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish Outlooks
CryptoQuant’s current analysis places Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum ratio at 0.8, which historically falls within the “start of rally” zone. From this point, the market could move in one of three directions: Bull, Consolidation, Correction.
In the optimistic scenario, the ratio breaks above 1.0 and sustains momentum. If this occurs, CryptoQuant forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $175,000, repeating the parabolic cycle patterns observed in 2017 and 2021. A breakout of this scale would likely require significant new inflows and sustained demand from both institutional and retail investors.
The base case scenario envisions the ratio staying within the 0.8 to 1.0 range, leading to a consolidation phase with Bitcoin trading in a broad corridor between $90,000 and $110,000. This would indicate strong holding behavior, with participants maintaining positions but refraining from adding more risk exposure.
In the pessimistic scenario, if the ratio drops toward 0.75, it may signal profit-taking by short-term holders. This could result in a market correction, pulling Bitcoin’s price back to the $70,000–$85,000 range. However, given that the market recently absorbed a correction, CryptoQuant deems this outcome less likely than the first two.
Eyes on the ratio
As Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics continue to evolve, the ratio between market value and realized value may prove pivotal in shaping expectations for the next leg of the crypto cycle.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still the only crypto asset that most investors are adding to their portfolio.At the time of writing, the price of BTC has reached $95,471.
BTC price dynamics (April - May 2025). Source: TradingView
Traders and long-term investors alike are watching closely to see whether the asset breaks out—or stalls in consolidation.
In addition, we wrote earlier Bitcoin price enters May in tense standoff as accumulation builds in tight range.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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