XRP price prediction: Can $1.5541 resistance hold as XRP rises 1.27%?

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XRP gains 1.27% after mainnet upgrade

Highlights

XRP whales offloaded over 30 million tokens in five days, while active addresses dropped nearly 50% following the XRPL v3.2.0 upgrade.
Renewed speculation about a spot XRP ETF surfaced after industry commentary, but BlackRock confirmed no current plans to launch such a product.
Technical signals are mixed with overbought conditions and fading momentum; XRP is expected to trade between $1.109 and $1.1872 with a slight downside bias.

Whale token distribution and active address drop amid upgrade

Recent on-chain data shows that XRP whales distributed over 30 million tokens in the past five days while active addresses on the network dropped by nearly 50%, coinciding with the rollout of the XRPL v3.2.0 mainnet upgrade, according to Coingape. This wave of large holder distributions and sharply reduced participation suggests shifting supply dynamics and temporary disruptions in engagement, likely influencing short-term sentiment and market liquidity. In parallel, speculation around a possible spot XRP ETF filing re-emerged after commentary from Digital Ascension Group's Jake Claver, though Gncrypto reports that BlackRock has reiterated it has no current plans for such a product.

Mixed momentum as short-term signals diverge below resistance

On the hourly chart, XRP trades above the MA-20 at $1.1345 and MA-50 at $1.1455, while remaining below the long-term MA-200 at $1.5541. The immediate support is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $1.1343, with the expected intraday range set between $1.109 and $1.1872. Technically, the MACD signals a strong sell, and the ADX also points to a sell bias, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. RSI is at 55.76, issuing a buy signal, but overbought readings are flagged by both the Stoch RSI and CCI, warranting caution. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicator signals buyers are active intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) supports an ongoing uptrend. Oscillators offer a diverging outlook, as momentum factors show mixed or fading strength.

Range-bound outlook as upside probability marginally trails downside

For the next trading day, XRP is likely to remain range-bound within a volatility band between $1.109 and $1.1872. The probability of an upward move stands at 45%, making a downward move marginally more likely. The baseline expectation is for sideways consolidation between defined support and resistance. Should bullish momentum prevail and resistance be breached, upside continuation may follow, while a decisive drop below support would open the way toward further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees mixed signals for XRP after recent whale distributions and network activity decline during the XRPL upgrade. He notes that technical indicators present both short-term bullish and bearish cues, while the ETF speculation remains unconfirmed. Kharitonov believes the lack of institutional catalysts and fading network participation limit any upside for now. "With consolidation likely and upside capped below $1.1872, I remain cautious and would not chase rallies until stronger confirmation appears."

Earlier, analysts noted that XRP was struggling with persistent bearish momentum and limited prospects for an immediate recovery amid ongoing volatility. The current market action, marked by mixed technical signals and shifting whale behavior, adds complexity to the outlook and suggests traders should monitor for a decisive break above resistance or below support as the next catalyst for direction.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.