Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as Fed rate-hike risk offsets Iran ceasefire relief

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Bitcoin near $64K amid Fed risk

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, capping upside despite slowing withdrawal pace.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a hawkish stance, with CME FedWatch pricing in a 36% chance of a July rate hike and at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end.
Bitcoin trades in a $60,000 to $67,000 range as one-week implied volatility drops to 36% and downside protection demand eases following Iran ceasefire and improved global risk sentiment.

Macro pressures and ETF outflows cap gains

The Block reported Monday that bitcoin remains under pressure after six consecutive weeks of net outflows from spot exchange-traded funds, even as the pace of withdrawals slows from earlier in the month.

U.S. spot ETFs post a record $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, according to Galaxy Research and The Block's data. Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, says institutional flows have yet to show a clear sign of returning, adding that the lack of a sustained net-inflow trend indicates fresh demand remains limited.

Federal Reserve policy expectations also weigh on the market. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a hawkish stance at his first FOMC meeting, while CME FedWatch shows about a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting and markets price in at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end.

Volatility eases as traders watch key price range

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week, formally ending more than 100 days of conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted a fifth of global oil flows. That agreement initially lifts risk appetite across markets, but the effect on bitcoin fades as the stronger dollar and rate concerns reassert themselves, with the DXY recovering to the 100.6 to 100.8 range.

Options positioning points to a less defensive market tone beneath the surface. One-week implied volatility falls to 36% from 60%, and the 25-delta put skew retreats from extreme levels seen during the June selloff, suggesting demand for downside protection has largely eased, according to data tracked by The Block.

Massabni places bitcoin in a near-term $60,000 to $67,000 range, describing the market as balanced between supportive and restrictive forces. He says easing ETF selling and improved global risk sentiment support prices, while a hawkish Fed and the absence of institutional confirmation continue to restrain upside; the $62,000 gamma wall remains a key level to watch.

Our earlier article on Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve policy overhaul outlined how the new chair kicked off a broad internal review of the Fed’s framework, spanning communications, inflation analysis, economic data, technology impacts, and the balance sheet. We also noted the early shift away from forward guidance and the potential rethink of signaling tools such as the dot plot and press-conference format—changes that markets interpreted as reinforcing a more hawkish rate outlook.

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