Bitcoin price range-bound between $92K and $100K ahead of options expiry
Bitcoin has started the year on a positive note, rallying over 4% in the first two days to a seven-day high of $97,500, only to retrace to $96,000 in the European session today. With $1.9 billion in Bitcoin options contracts expiring today, traders are keenly watching the market volatility ahead between the $100,000 resistance and $92,000 support seen over the past 15 days.
BTC price dynamics (November 2024-January 2025). Source: TradingView
Today marks the first major crypto options expiry of 2025, involving 19,885 Bitcoin contracts valued at $1.9 billion. The maximum pain point, or strike price, is set at $97,000, a level that historically acts as a gravitational pull during expirations. This level represents the price at which options sellers, predominantly large institutions, maximize their profits by expiring most contracts worthless. A put-to-call ratio of 0.69 indicates a relatively bullish sentiment, as traders lean toward calls over puts.
While last week’s end-of-year options saw significantly higher activity with 88,537 Bitcoin contracts expiring, today’s numbers, though smaller, still have the potential to induce short-term price fluctuations. Historically, such expirations contribute to temporary market volatility as the price adjusts to favor the options sellers.
Bitcoin to hold above $96,000 as put-to-call ratio favoring bullish sentiment
Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience despite failing to reclaim the $100,000 milestone. After reaching a high of $97,500 this week, the cryptocurrency now trades at $96,000. Over the past 15 days, Bitcoin has fluctuated within the $92,000-$100,000 range, with price movement appearing increasingly constrained.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI remains above 50, reflecting mild bullish momentum, although not yet overbought. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average around $95,000 is acting as a near-term support, suggesting that traders may defend this level.
The confluence of today’s options expiry and Bitcoin’s range-bound behavior could dictate the next move. A decisive break above $100,000 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $92,000 could open the door for further downside.
The Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.23 on December 31, marking its lowest level in 12 months. Retail demand in the United States waned, contributing to Bitcoin's struggle.
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