Bitcoin price prediction: BTC weakness persists, but open interest signals weak shorts

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Sholanke Dele

04.09.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC weakness persists, but open interest signals weak shorts — Weak volume weighs on Bitcoin gains

Bitcoin's price action on Thursday shows the market struggling once again against overhead resistance after a short-lived rebound. The cryptocurrency had posted three consecutive daily gains, rising from a nine-week low of $107,280 to a five-day-high of around $112,600, amounting to a 5% advance. This recovery briefly lifted sentiment as the fear and greed index shifted from fear to neutral, helped by the price move above the 100-day EMA. However, a closer look at positioning reveals the upturn lacked conviction. The long-to-short ratio was in decline throughout the advance, suggesting that traders were not strongly backing the move higher.

• Bitcoin slides below 100-day EMA as rebound fades without strong conviction.

• BTC decline accompanied by weak volume, signalling drift rather than heavy liquidation.

• Open interest fall suggests long unwinding, not new bearish money.

The technical ceiling at the 20-day EMA near $112,600 proved decisive. Bitcoin tested that level on Wednesday but failed to break through. By Thursday’s European session, the price had already reversed and slipped more than 1%, falling below the previous day’s low. This reversal effectively erased the prior day’s gains and shifted focus back to the weakness that has persisted since the all-time high. On the intraday chart, the downtrend has been steady from the Asian session, dragging the pair to an intraday low near $110,300, which is also beneath the 100-day EMA.

Bitcoin price dynamic (August - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin trend analysis on the four-hour chart shows that the decline from Wednesday’s peak to Thursday’s low has been accompanied by falling volume. Typically, strong downtrends are confirmed when volume rises in the same direction, showing that selling is backed by conviction. Here, volume has shrunk, pointing instead to a lack of strong participation. That means the drop has more of the character of a slow drift lower rather than an aggressive liquidation event.

Bitcoin RSI near 50 shows neutral momentum despite persistent intraday weakness

Open interest provides another clue. Data shows that open interest has been falling alongside the intraday decline. When price falls and OI also falls, it means traders are closing positions rather than opening fresh shorts. This is a sign that Bitcoin's current weakness reflects unwinds of existing bets, not an influx of new bearish money. Such conditions often leave the market vulnerable to a rebound once the position adjustments stabilize.

The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has been slipping lower and currently hovers around the neutral 50 mark. It has not yet crossed into bearish territory, but a decisive break below could reinforce downside momentum. On the other hand, if RSI stabilizes and turns higher while Bitcoin holds above recent support, the market could attempt another bounce. Any improvement in broader risk sentiment or strong inflows would further strengthen recovery prospects.

Overall, Bitcoin’s decline from the 20-day EMA resistance looks weak in terms of conviction. The combination of falling volume, reduced open interest, and a neutral RSI level suggests the selloff lacks force. That raises the probability of a stabilization or bounce in the near term, provided external catalysts do not worsen sentiment.

Bitcoin options expiry worth $11.47B contrasts optimism with spot weakness near $110,000. Price fell below $112,000 support as the expiry event heightens downside pressure.

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