Solana ETF advances — SOL consolidates near $142.10 amid persistent bearish pressure

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Solana slips 0.30% to $142.10 today

Highlights

VanEck has filed an 8-A form with the US SEC for its Solana spot ETF, indicating an imminent product launch.
Institutional demand is robust with Bitwise BSOL and Grayscale's GSOL ETPs reporting elevated trading and total ETF inflows reaching $369 million.
Combined treasury and ETF manager holdings now exceed 24 million SOL, with four Solana ETFs active and ten pending regulatory approval.

ETF filings and institutional inflows drive Solana fund activity

VanEck has moved forward with its Solana spot ETF plans by filing an 8-A form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, signaling an imminent launch. Institutional interest remains strong, with Bitwise BSOL and Grayscale's GSOL ETP seeing elevated trading activity and total ETF inflows now reaching $369 million. Current holdings across treasury and ETF manager reserves include more than 24 million SOL, and four Solana ETFs are active while ten more await regulatory approval.

Oversold oscillators contrast with sustained selling and price support

Momentum remains weak, with both daily MACD and ADX pointing to continued selling dominance. Multiple oscillators, including daily RSI (30.9), Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP, indicate clear oversold conditions, suggesting the price is deeply compressed by recent selling. Daily price action shows a modest decline from the previous close, slipping 0.30% with no substantial gap at the open. The current price sits near the upper boundary of today’s range, suggesting some stability after early pressure. Intraday volatility is moderate, and price action reflects mild downward pressure interspersed with signs of potential exhaustion. While traditional momentum is bearish, the oversold readings and supported price near dynamic support present a notable divergence between trend strength and reversal risk.

Low upside probability as technicals favor further declines

For the next five trading days, the adjusted expected price range is $128.00 to $146.95. Given the strong prevalence of sell signals in weekly MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD, the probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely within this corridor. In the baseline scenario, SOL may consolidate between $130 and $145, forming a sideways range. A bullish outcome would require a sustained move above resistance at $170.55, initiating a potential reversal. Conversely, if downside pressure persists and $137.70 is breached, the price could test fresh lows near $128.00 before attempting stabilization.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Solana remains under pressure, with technical signals pointing to a bearish trend. However, he sees positive macro and fundamental factors building momentum for a longer-term recovery. Institutional interest and upcoming ETF launches indicate rising confidence in SOL despite current oversold conditions. Karapetjanc believes these developments may help stabilize the price as broader market sentiment finds a footing. "If sustained institutional demand persists, I expect Solana to regain upward momentum once the immediate selling pressure eases."

Previously it was noted that Solana experienced a decisive structure break as sellers took control of the market. The article reported that flows show $52.7M in outflows, contributing to an extended period of selling pressure.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.