Polkadot price prediction: Will range-bound trading persist after modest 2.23% gain?

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Polkadot rises 2.23% today to $2.342

Highlights

The Web3 Foundation has proposed a central fund to collect all newly issued DOT and protocol revenues to reshape Polkadot's economic structure.
Fund allocations will be distributed periodically based on governance processes, signaling increased community direction over ecosystem funding and token issuance.
Polkadot is focusing ongoing development on upgrades to consensus mechanisms, the relay chain, parachain framework, and related ecosystem initiatives.

Token supply overhaul as governance-driven funding proposed

Polkadot is experiencing a transition in its economic structure, as the Web3 Foundation has proposed a new framework for token issuance and ecosystem funding. The proposal outlines the creation of a central fund to collect all newly issued DOT and protocol revenues, with periodic allocations determined by governance processes. Ongoing development is also centered on upgrades to consensus mechanisms, the relay chain, parachain framework, and related ecosystem initiatives.

Bearish momentum sustained as oversold signals fail to reverse

Momentum indicators on the daily chart remain bearish, with the MACD and ADX both tilted to the downside and indicating strong negative momentum. The RSI is low at 34.95 and CCI is oversold at –101.76, signaling oversold conditions without an apparent reversal. The Stochastic RSI remains neutral but consistently below its mid-levels, while BBP confirms ongoing seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator stays negative and reinforces the persistent bearish trend. Immediate resistance is provided by the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.855, while near-term support lies at the recent lows around $2.316.

Further downside risk as rebound hinges on resistance breakout

In the short term, DOT is likely to remain range-bound, with a projected five-session trading corridor between $2.28 and $2.36. The probability of a strong upward move is low (less than 20%), and further declines are more likely, as signaled by weekly trend indicators and oscillators. Oversold technical readings may support temporary stabilization, but a bullish reversal would require a clear breakout above $2.36 — and especially $2.85 — while a breach of $2.31–$2.28 support could trigger new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Polkadot trading under sustained bearish pressure, lagging well below key moving averages. He notes that while the token’s new economic proposals offer a structural upgrade, current momentum and indicators remain decidedly negative. The analyst remains skeptical of a short-term rebound, as oversold readings have yet to spark meaningful buying. "Base case remains range-bound with a downside tilt — until DOT reclaims $2.36, caution is warranted."

Previously it was noted that technical signals continued to favor further declines for Polkadot, with indicators such as MACD, ADX, and RSI reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Last time we reported about growing adoption and practical use cases in the region, as seen in programs like the Stablecoin Education Program using Polkadot technology in the Philippines.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.