-0.11% for Tesco stock — bearish signals persist despite upbeat results

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Tesco slips 0.11% to GBX 438.50

Highlights

Tesco bought back and cancelled 2,849,624 ordinary shares, advancing its share buyback program and supporting capital return to shareholders.
For fiscal 2024/25, Tesco reported a 3.5% sales increase to £63.6bn, a 10.6% rise in adjusted operating profit to £3.13bn, and a 17% EPS gain to 27.38p.
Tesco raised its annual dividend to 13.7p per share and increased the interim dividend for 2025/26 to 4.8p per share, signaling improved shareholder payouts.

Buyback expansion and profit growth drive positive corporate sentiment

Tesco advanced its share buyback program by purchasing and cancelling 2,849,624 ordinary shares. The company released its annual results for fiscal 2024/25, reporting a 3.5% rise in sales to £63.6bn, a 10.6% increase in adjusted operating profit to £3.13bn, a 17% gain in EPS to 27.38p, and a dividend increase to 13.7p per share. For the first half of 2025/26, Tesco reported sales of £33.05bn and an interim dividend raised to 4.8p per share.

Oversold signals contrast with firm intraday selling momentum

Momentum signals remain weak, with MACD and ADX on the daily chart both indicating selling interest and a lack of clear trend strength. The RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all leaning oversold, while BBP confirms sellers’ dominance over buyers intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is also negative, aligning with the overall bearish tone. The stock opened just above yesterday’s close (no gap), has drifted to the mid-lower part of today’s 436.37 – 440.80 range, and shows low intraday volatility with mild downward bias after the open. Despite oversold oscillators, downward momentum still dominates, which introduces a divergence between oversold signals and persistent intraday selling.

Bullish probability rises as weekly signals point to range-bound trade

For the next 5 trading days, the expected range is GBX 425.00 to GBX 445.00, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. With 100% of the key weekly signals (RSI-w1, ADX-w1, MACD-w1, MA-50-w1) showing bullish or strong buy, the probability of a price increase is very high (more than 80%), while a decline is less likely. The baseline scenario is for the price to move sideways between support and resistance within this band. A bullish scenario would see a clear move above GBX 445.00, while a bearish outcome could put GBX 425.00 at risk and test the long-term support zone near the MA-200.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Tesco’s technical picture remains weak despite strong fundamental updates. He sees momentum staying negative in the short term, with price action pressured below key averages and oscillators firmly oversold. Kharitonov believes that even with bullish weekly signals, risk remains skewed to the downside unless there is a clear break above resistance. "Until GBX 445.00 is reclaimed, caution is warranted and any rallies may prove short-lived."

Last time, analysts noted Tesco shares were trading below short-term moving averages amid weak momentum indicators, with oscillators signaling mild selling pressure and technical resistance evident near £457.90. The stock was expected to consolidate within a narrow range, with downside risk towards long-term support if £435 failed to hold.

Source of Data: TSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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