Upward move for pound sterling vs dollar — bullish technicals and overbought signals in play

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GBP/USD gains 0.22% near $1.35 today

Highlights

GBP/USD traded actively as investors positioned ahead of the United Kingdom's third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release.
The pound sterling held firm against the dollar, reflecting sustained demand in anticipation of key UK macroeconomic data.
Short-term GBP/USD price movements remained sensitive to expectations surrounding the upcoming GDP report, underscoring the pair’s data-driven volatility.

Pound demand rises as GDP expectations drive pre-release positioning

GBP/USD saw active trading as market participants anticipated the United Kingdom's third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release. The pound sterling held firm against the dollar, reflecting continued demand ahead of this important UK economic data. These developments highlight the pair's sensitivity to macroeconomic events, with short-term movements influenced by expectations surrounding the upcoming GDP report.

Overbought signals prompt caution amid sustained buyer momentum

Momentum remains positive, as both MACD and ADX on the daily chart signal a buyer-driven trend. However, multiple oscillators are flashing overbought signals: RSI is high at 69, Stochastic RSI is deeply overbought, and CCI is firmly above 195. BBP remains positive, confirming intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and thus does not add support to the trend. The nearest dynamic support is found at the Ichimoku Kijun level ($1.3328), with resistance likely around the recent high or the psychologically significant $1.3500 area. Today's session opened with a modest upward gap and the current price is trading near today’s high ($1.3493) within a very tight range, highlighting low intraday volatility and a persistent upward tone after the open. The combination of sustained bullish momentum and overbought oscillators indicates strong upward pressure but suggests caution due to possible corrective moves.

Sideways consolidation likely as breakout hinges on resistance test

Looking ahead, the projected price corridor for the next five trading days is $1.3450 – $1.3550, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further price increase is high (more than 80%), while a decline is less likely. The most likely scenario calls for sideways movement within this corridor, while a clear breakout above $1.3500 may target the $1.3550 region. A bearish scenario could unfold if the price falls below the Kijun support at $1.3328, potentially triggering a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that GBP/USD shows clear bullish momentum above all major moving averages. However, he sees overbought signals flashing across several oscillators, suggesting risk of a corrective pause. The analyst is cautious due to tight trading near channel highs and upcoming UK GDP data. "I remain defensive until the $1.3500 level is convincingly broken — sideways action is my base case for now."

Previously it was reported that GBP/USD is trading above its short- and medium-term moving averages, with bullish momentum reinforced by supportive MACD and ADX readings, though immediate upside is limited by resistance at the long-term MA-200. While technical indicators such as the RSI and CCI highlight emerging buying interest, price action is expected to remain range-bound as bullish momentum contends with overhead resistance.

Source of Data: GBP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.