Costco stock price forecast: mixed technicals as COST rebounds 2.07% despite downside risks

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Costco gains 2.07% today to $872.24

Highlights

Costco reported first quarter total sales of $66.0 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-over-year increase and demonstrating robust revenue growth.
Costco paid a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, translating to an annualized dividend of $5.20 and a 27.85% payout ratio.
The company enhanced its in-store experience and expanded e-commerce partnerships with Instacart, Uber Eats, and DoorDash to support continued growth.

Revenue gains and partner expansion support bullish long-term sentiment

Costco reported strong first quarter results, increasing total sales by 8.2% to $66.0 billion and demonstrating robust year-over-year revenue growth. The company recently paid a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, representing an annualized dividend of $5.20 with a payout ratio of around 27.85%. Costco continues to improve its in-store experience and has expanded e-commerce partnerships with Instacart, Uber Eats, and DoorDash.

Weak momentum and mixed oscillators underscore bearish dominance

Momentum signals are weak with MACD and ADX both indicating a sell bias, reinforcing the presence of bearish sentiment. Oscillators present a mixed picture: daily RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, while Stoch RSI gives a strong buy signal, highlighting a potential for short-term upside. Bull/Bear Power is deeply negative, reinforcing seller dominance despite today’s 2.07% rebound, with no gap at the open and the price currently only modestly above the session’s mid-range within today’s volatility corridor ($859.32 – $868.65). Intraday volatility has been moderate, with the tone marked by early strength capped by resistance, and overall, there remains a clear divergence between momentum and oscillator signals.

Sideways channel favored as sustained upside odds remain low

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $850.00 to $885.00, adjusted for current price levels and typical volatility. There is a very low probability of a sustained price increase (less than 20%), with the downside remaining more likely given the synchronized sell signals on weekly and daily momentum indicators. The baseline scenario sees COST holding in a sideways channel between support near $850.00 and resistance at $885.00. A bullish scenario would require a decisive move above $885.00 for further gains if momentum shifts, while a bearish move could accelerate if price breaks below $850.00 in the short term.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that Costco’s strong sales growth and stable dividend reflect solid fundamental health despite ongoing technical weakness. He believes the stock shows resilience, supported by robust results and improved partnerships, even as short-term momentum stays negative. The current technical setup suggests further downside risk, but corporate performance and oversold conditions offer a constructive outlook if resistance at $885.00 is cleared. Macro sentiment remains cautious, but the underlying story is positive. "If COST can reclaim and hold above $885.00, I see a new opportunity for reactive buyers to test higher levels in the coming sessions."

Last time, analysts noted that Costco is trading below major moving averages and encountering dynamic resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level, reflecting persistent bearish pressure across all timeframes. Despite oversold conditions signaled by RSI and MACD, momentum remains weak, and sellers continue to dominate, with the stock expected to trade sideways within a narrow range and downside risk elevated unless significant resistance is overcome.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.