Costco stock price forecast: sideways trading expected as COST resists long-term breakout

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Costco rises 0.51% to $920.11 today

Highlights

Costco posted strong December net sales exceeding $30 billion, highlighting continued top-line growth and operational scale during the key holiday period.
The company’s resilient membership model, along with expanding e-commerce and advertising segments, supported ongoing expansion plans and diversified revenue streams.
Robust December results triggered increased investor speculation about a possible special dividend from Costco later in the year.

Investor optimism builds as strong December sales prompt dividend speculation

Costco posted strong net sales for December, exceeding $30 billion during the month. The company’s resilient membership model alongside a growing e-commerce and advertising segment also supported its ongoing expansion plans. December’s robust results further fueled speculation among investors about a possible special dividend later in the year.

Neutral momentum contrasts with overbought signals as local resistance firms

The nearest dynamic support is given by the Ichimoku Kijun at $887.79, with the MA-50 near $894.57 functioning as the next local resistance. Momentum indicators show a neutral outlook with the MACD flat on the daily and a subdued ADX reading, signaling limited trend strength. Overbought readings are clear in the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index, while the RSI stays in buy territory, highlighting a divergence between overbought oscillators and moderate momentum. Bull/Bear Power signals current buyer dominance, reinforcing the positive daily change of $4.65 or 0.51%, with no significant gap at today's open and the price near the top of the intraday range. Volatility is moderate, and the tone leans toward persistent strength with buyers maintaining control after the open despite mixed oscillator signals.

Sideways bias persists as upside faces low odds on long-term signals

Over the next five trading days, the expected range for COST is $890 to $930, centered near the current price in line with typical volatility and market backdrop. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, making a further decline more likely based on long-term weekly signals. The baseline scenario foresees the stock holding in a sideways corridor between $890 and $930. A bullish scenario would involve a breakout above resistance toward the $930 zone, while a bearish scenario could see a drop below Ichimoku Kijun support near $887.79, targeting $890 or lower should short-term momentum fade.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Costco’s technical picture as capped by long-term resistance with short-term buyers still in control. He notes that while strong December sales and solid fundamentals fuel some optimism, overbought oscillator readings and flat momentum indicators limit the bullish case. The base scenario remains a sideways range between $890 and $930, with clear risk if support breaks. "Until Costco decisively clears $930 or loses $887.79, I see little reason to commit to a new position," Kharitonov says.

Previously it was reported that Costco is exhibiting strong short-term and moderate medium-term momentum, with the price trading well above its 20- and 50-day moving averages but still below the long-term 200-day average, suggesting resistance remains overhead. While daily MACD signals a strong sell bias and oscillators indicate overbought conditions, persistent buyer strength is evident near session highs, with dynamic support at the Ichimoku Kijun and resistance identified at the MA-50.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.