Oversold technicals and capital raise weigh on outlook

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SoFi drops 6.32% to $20.39 today

Highlights

SoFi reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.13 and revenue of $1.03 billion, both surpassing analyst expectations.
The company is liquidating the SoFi Next 500 ETF (SFYX) and raised $1.5 billion via share offering to strengthen capital ratios and acquisition capability.
SOFI trades at $20.39, well below key moving averages with a bearish technical outlook and support seen between $19.50–$22.50, probability of price increase below 20%.

Capital boost and ETF exit as SOFI pivots after earnings beat

SoFi reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share of $0.13 and $1.03 billion in revenue, both above expectations. The company announced the liquidation and termination of the SoFi Next 500 ETF (SFYX) as it refocuses on its core banking, lending, and technology platform. Additionally, SoFi raised $1.5 billion through a share offering to boost capital ratios, with speculation this move enhances its readiness for potential fintech acquisitions.

Oversold signals deepen as bearish pressure breaches vital supports

The nearest resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at $25.45, while the current price has broken below all major dynamic supports. Momentum remains bearish on the daily timeframe: the MACD is firmly in sell territory, the ADX shows low trend strength, and both the RSI (25.99) and Commodity Channel Index (-207.46) signal oversold conditions. The Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold, Bull/Bear Power is strongly negative, and the Awesome Oscillator is confirming the persistent seller dominance. High intraday volatility and continued pressure following the open confirm the prevailing bearish tone.

Limited rebound prospects as technical weakness and volatility persist

For the week ahead, SOFI is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $19.50 – $22.50, reflecting recent sharp movements and the current oversold condition. The probability of an upward price move is low (less than 20%), pointing to a higher likelihood of further declines. The base case anticipates sideways activity constrained by oversold signals, but a sustained break above $22.50 could reopen the path to $24.00, while a drop below $19.50 risks accelerating the current downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees SoFi facing persistent bearish momentum despite its strong earnings and strategic moves. He highlights that the price sits below all major moving averages, with oversold signals across technical indicators, signaling little chance of a near-term upside. Resistance at $22.50 looms, and risk remains for further downside below $19.50. "With downside pressure firmly in place, I see no tactical buying opportunity until the $22.50 level is reclaimed with conviction."

Last time, analysts noted that SoFi Technologies Inc was experiencing persistent selling pressure, with its stock trading well below key short- and long-term moving averages and exhibiting deeply oversold conditions across multiple technical indicators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and MACD. Momentum remains negative amid heightened volatility, with the price testing long-term support while dynamic resistance and weak ADX readings indicate sellers remain firmly in control.

Source of Data: SOFI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.