Gold price forecast: XAU/USD nears $3,000 as U.S. officials downplay recession risk
The gold price is on the verge of breaking the $3,000 per ounce barrier for the first time in history, after extending its year-to-date gain to 14%. The metal has posted three consecutive bullish sessions, with Thursday’s 2% surge pushing it past its previous all-time high of $2,956. Despite the overbought RSI, momentum remains strong, reflecting continued demand for the precious metal.
On Friday, March 10, gold briefly surpassed $2,990 per ounce, but price action has since been limited to a tight range between $2,995 and $2,980. The 4-hour RSI remains in overbought territory, yet the market is showing no immediate signs of a pullback. Instead, traders are eyeing the psychologically significant $3,000 level as the next major threshold.
Gold price dynamics (Feb 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
U.S. trade policies and recession risk drive gold bullish outlook
Beyond technical factors, gold’s rally is supported by persistent concerns over U.S. trade policies. Investors have shifted toward safe-haven assets as uncertainty grows around the impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade stance. The back-and-forth on tariffs, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit, has driven sustained demand for gold, as equity markets struggle to find direction.
Recent statements from U.S. officials have added to market unease. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed fears of a recession, calling the economic shift a “detox period,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested a downturn would be “worth it” to achieve policy goals. This stance fueled further sell-offs in U.S. equities, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a defensive asset.
With gold now within striking distance of $3,000, the next move will depend on whether buyers maintain momentum or if profit-taking sets in. A confirmed break above $3,000 could open the door for further gains, while any pullback would likely find support around the $2,956 level.
Gold rose as weaker U.S. labor data reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts. The price hit $2,946 before pulling back to $2,935, confirming a breakout from six-day consolidation.
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