US Dollar vs Nigerian Naira price prediction: Will bearish signals push USD/NGN below 1350?

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US Dollar vs Naira slides 0.99% today

Highlights

MTN reversed a R10.9 billion group loss into a R27 billion profit by December 2025, aided by fintech expansion, restructuring, and market portfolio improvement.
The company increased its dividend by 45% to 500 cents per share and announced a R6 billion share buyback amid selling pressure following the Nigerian Naira devaluation.
USD/NGN technicals indicate sustained seller dominance, with price expected to consolidate within $1,350–$1,390 and downside risk prevailing unless resistance near $1,373–$1,390 is breached.

MTN swings to profit as naira devaluation pressures persist

In 2024, MTN reported a group loss of R10.9 billion following the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira, with Nigeria being its largest market. By the end of December 2025, the company reversed these losses and posted a profit after tax of R27 billion, supported by expansion into fintech and digital services, business restructuring, and improving its market portfolio. MTN also initiated a R6 billion share buyback and raised its dividend by 45% to 500 cents per share. These events marked significant corporate and currency-related changes in Nigeria, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals as buying fades near technical resistance

On the technical front, USD/NGN trades below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $1,372.64 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum readings on D1 are mixed: MACD and ADX remain bullish, but Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, and BBP suggests overbought conditions, indicating that recent buyer dominance may be fading. The RSI holds in the buy zone at 55.87, yet Stoch RSI (33.81) and AO are both neutral. Price is close to the day’s lows of $1,377.05–$1,388.15, showing moderate volatility and notable intraday downside alignment with softer momentum signals.

Downside bias favored as technicals signal limited rebound

Over the next five trading days, USD/NGN is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band of $1,350 to $1,390. The probability of a short-term increase is low, with less than 20% likelihood, while a further decline is more likely as all weekly technical signals remain bearish. The base case is for sideways consolidation within the current $40 range; a bullish scenario would require a clear break of resistance at $1,373–$1,390, whereas a breach of support near $1,350 could accelerate declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent selling pressure on the USD/NGN pair, underpinned by bearish technicals and ongoing weakness from Nigerian naira’s devaluation events. He highlights that while MTN’s recovery and expansion into fintech signal positive structural shifts for Nigerian markets, broader sentiment remains cautious with price stuck below key resistance levels. The analyst believes short-term upside is limited as all major signals remain anchored to the downside. He maintains a constructive outlook as fundamentals gradually improve, but sees the market requiring a clear break above $1,390 for sustained bullish momentum. "If USD/NGN can establish support above $1,373 and hold, I expect renewed optimism and the potential for a stronger recovery in the coming weeks."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/NGN was exhibiting a short-to-medium term bullish bias despite lingering longer-term downward pressure. The latest developments confirm a shift to a more bearish environment, with sustained selling momentum signaling that downside risks remain elevated and a break of support near $1,350 could act as a catalyst for renewed declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.