Costco stock price forecast for 2040: Membership loyalty and private label growth support long-term path toward $2,500

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Costco stock price outlook

Highlights

Price has pulled back to the $965 area after failing to hold above the $1,000-$1,010 zone.
RSI reads 29.81 with the signal line at 35.11, firmly in oversold territory.
Support sits near $960 to $964, with resistance developing between $974 and $989.

Costco's gross margin improvement to 12.88% in FY2026 Q1 reflects steady progress in private-label mix and operational efficiency, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 signaling a balance sheet that provides management with flexibility without financial stress. The P/E ratio of 50.56 looks quite high, but Costco has traded at a premium to the general market due to the near-guaranteed earnings potential from membership fee income, regardless of fluctuations in retail margins. Both the 20-period EMA at $974 and the 50-period EMA at $983 are higher than the current stock price.

Costco price dynamics (January to March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Membership growth and private label expansion could drive Costco's earnings toward 2040

Costco's membership model is what separates it from every other large-format retailer. The company derives renewal fees from over 76 million paid household members, and renewal rates are well over 90% in North America. This is a relatively independent stream of income, not necessarily tied to retail margins, and a consistent earnings base that supports a higher valuation multiple than that of a typical retailer. Expansion of membership outside North America, particularly in Asia and Europe, offers a growth trajectory not available in the domestic market alone.

Private label through the Kirkland Signature brand is the margin lever that most long-term models underweight. Kirkland generated an estimated $58 billion in sales in fiscal 2025, and private labels carry gross margins 5 to 8 percentage points above equivalent national brands. As Costco continues expanding the Kirkland assortment into new categories, the mix shift drives margin improvement without requiring top-line acceleration. Starting from $19.22 TTM EPS, compounding at 10 to 12% annually through 2040 puts EPS in the $75 to $90 range. A 28 to 30x forward multiple, conservative relative to Costco's historical trading range, produces a price between $2,100 and $2,700. $2,500 sits comfortably within that band.

Key levels to watch as consolidation develops

In the near term, a hold above $960 and a retake of the $974 to $975 zone would indicate the selling is exhausting itself and open the door toward a retest of the $983 to $989 resistance band above. A volume-supported move back above $989 would signal that the broader uptrend is resuming. If $960 breaks on a closing basis, near-term support is removed and attention shifts to the $950 to $952 area. A sustained move below $955 would reframe this pullback from a normal consolidation to one that will require more time before buyers regain control.

From a broader perspective, the price trajectory will be driven by Costco's ability to reach $1,400 by the end of 2030 and $1,900 by the end of 2035. There is a quicker route if international membership growth exceeds the current trajectory and private label growth exceeds the margin profile earlier than expected, moving the trajectory to before 2037 or 2038.

In the previous analysis of Costco, it was noted that the $1,000 to $1,010 zone would act as resistance and that a pullback was likely if that level was not reclaimed on volume. Price action since has confirmed that view, with the stock fading from exactly that area and declining steadily through the back half of March.

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