Arm stock drops 1.39% as potential DRAM chip shortages weigh on sentiment

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Arm slides 1.39% to $146.84 today

Highlights

Arm delivered an adjusted Q4 2025 earnings beat at $0.43 per share, marking its fourth consecutive outperformance.
The company is expanding into chipmaking from its core licensing business, but faces possible DRAM chip shortages ahead of its Q4 FY26 report.
Technicals show a bullish setup above key supports, with expected price action between $145.12 and $146.66 and short-term momentum mixed.

Ongoing chip strategy and earnings beat as selling pressure persists

Arm reported adjusted earnings of $0.43 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, achieving its fourth consecutive quarterly earnings beat. The company is pursuing a strategic shift to chipmaking alongside its core chip architecture licensing business. These developments were accompanied by mention of potential challenges related to DRAM chip shortages and expectations for its upcoming Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum and short-term volatility as support holds

The current price of $146.84 remains above the SMA-20 ($137.62), SMA-50 ($127.11), and SMA-200 ($138.62), confirming an established bullish structure across short, medium, and long timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $138.98, indicating immediate support below the market. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD on D1 shows buy momentum, but ADX is neutral, highlighting weak trend strength. RSI (58.95) and CCI (63.72) point to bullish momentum near neutral territory, while Stoch RSI (17.13) is in oversold, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. BBP remains in overbought territory, indicating buyer dominance in the recent sessions despite today's modest decline of 1.39%. There was no significant gap at the open, and the price currently trades near the lower end of today's range ($146.37–$149.33), signaling moderate intraday volatility and showing mild pressure after the open. The divergence between oversold (Stoch RSI) and overbought (BBP) underscores short-term indecision as buyer momentum softens intraday.

Sideways trading range likely as bullish signals outweigh downside

For the next five trading days, price action is expected between $145.12 and $146.66, which places the range just below and above the current price, in line with typical volatility. The probability of a price increase is high (more than 80%), with a decrease much less likely according to a full set of bullish signals on MA-50-w1, MACD-w1, and RSI-w1. The baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within a tight corridor. Bullish momentum could push the price above $146.66 if resistance is broken. Conversely, a drop below $145.12 would open the way to further downside if intraday pressures persist.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Arm’s technical setup remains bullish as price trades above all key moving averages. He sees signals of mixed momentum, with overbought and oversold readings causing intraday indecision. Recent earnings beats and strategic business moves are offset by headwinds like DRAM supply risks. "Base case remains sideways with a bullish tilt, but I stay cautious unless $145.12 is defended on dips."

Earlier, analysts noted that Arm Holdings maintained a broadly bullish technical structure, though momentum signals and volatility reflected some caution. The current setup affirms this outlook, with the prevailing scenario favoring consolidation within a narrow band and traders advised to watch for a decisive move above $146.66 as a potential trigger for renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: ARM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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