Steady price for Nvidia stock as $196.00–$204.00 range remains key

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Nvidia falls 0.75% to $200.49 today

Highlights

The U.S. will refund $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs after a Supreme Court decision, easing trade restrictions for American technology exporters.
Potential EU retaliatory tariffs remain a low-probability risk unless new geopolitical catalysts arise before September 30.
Nvidia retains a bullish technical profile with high odds of sustaining $196.00–$204.00, though overbought signals and slight pullback suggest consolidation near current highs.

Tariff reversal reshapes outlook as tech exporters assess policy risk

On April 20, the United States government announced the refund of $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down these measures, removing a significant trade barrier for U.S. importers. EU retaliatory tariffs remain a possibility, with the probability of implementation by September 30 now at 0.8%, but contingent on the emergence of a new geopolitical trigger. The shift in U.S. trade policy directly alters the regulatory environment for American technology exporters, including Nvidia, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum divergence emerges as overbought signals clash with support

Nvidia is holding above the SMA-20 at $182.91, SMA-50 at $183.90, and SMA-200 at $181.99, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $183.31 now serving as initial support. MACD aligns to a Buy signal, while the ADX reads neutral, indicating only modest trend conviction. The RSI stands at 71.60, the CCI is flagged as overbought, and the Stoch RSI is extended at 100, signaling overbought conditions; BBP at 11.27 points to intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. Today, the price opened slightly lower, trading within a $200.64 – $202.49 range, with moderate volatility and visible divergence between persistent momentum readings and overbought indicator signals.

Consolidation forecast holds as volatility fuels breakout potential

For the next week, typical volatility suggests a trading range between $196.00 and $204.00 for NVDA, centering current levels within this $8 band. The probability of further gains remains high given positive signals from the weekly RSI, MACD, and MA-50. The baseline forecast is for consolidation inside this band, but a breakout above $204.00 could trigger further upside. Conversely, a drop below $196.00 may lead to sharper losses if overbought conditions begin to unwind.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s setup as technically strong but vulnerable to corrective pressure as indicators flash persistent overbought signals. He notes that while the U.S. trade policy shift removes one headwind, sector sentiment remains mixed and the market is still digesting recent volatility. For now, he maintains a cautious bias and is watching for price action at $196.00 and $204.00 to provide clearer signals. "My base case is consolidation, but if price slips below $196.00, I expect sharper short-term losses for NVDA."

Previously it was reported that analysts maintained a broadly bullish outlook on Nvidia amid strong technical momentum and ongoing institutional interest. The evolving regulatory backdrop, highlighted by the rollback of key U.S. tariffs, adds a new catalyst to the outlook, making a potential breakout above $204.00 a closely watched pivot for renewed upside.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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