Psychological illness claims keep Aviva stock in tight range

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Aviva slips 0.13% to GBX637.40 today

Highlights

Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland paid €125.6 million in protection claims in 2025, with psychological illness the top driver and a 32% jump in new income-protection claims versus 2024.
Aviva invested €290,000 in rehabilitation support and secured a favorable tribunal ruling in Ontario, but its share price remains under broader selling pressure.
AV trades with short-term bullish momentum but lacks long-term confirmation, with indicators signaling a probable range-bound to bearish move between GBX 620 and GBX 655.

Income-protection growth and legal win offset by selling pressure

Aviva launched the Resilico Connect flood resilience app to assist customers in high-risk areas with flood preparation. Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland reported paying €125.6 million in protection claims to over 2,900 customers in 2025, with psychological illness cited as the main claim driver and a 32% rise in new income-protection claims versus 2024. The group also invested €290,000 in rehabilitation and recovery support, and an Ontario tribunal ruled in favor of Aviva General Insurance Company regarding its accident benefits denial process, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed oscillator signals emerge as price nears session highs

On the technical front, AV trades above the MA-20 at GBX 624.05 and MA-50 at GBX 633.50, but remains below the MA-200 at GBX 652.96. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at GBX 623.40, acting as immediate support. MACD signals buying strength while D1 ADX is low at 11.03, indicating a weak trend. RSI at 54.00 and CCI at 79.04 suggest mild upward pressure, but Stoch RSI and BBP point to overbought conditions and growing seller presence intraday. The Awesome Oscillator leans positive, yet divergence in oscillators and price near session highs signal near-term indecision.

Downside risks dominate as volatility and mixed signals persist

Over the next five trading days, AV is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band from GBX 620 to GBX 655. With the probability of a price increase under 20%, a decline is the more likely scenario in the short term. The baseline outlook is for sideways movement in a narrow corridor as mixed technical signals persist. A sustained break above GBX 655 could open further upside, while continued weakness below GBX 620 would likely lead to lower support being tested.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Aviva’s strategic investments in resilience solutions and robust claims support as positives for its long-term fundamentals. He notes the technical setup remains mixed, with short-term optimism offset by macro-driven selling pressure and weak trend signals. Karapetjanc believes the near-term outlook is sideways, but with constructive bias if momentum builds above GBX 655. He expects long-term investors to benefit from Aviva’s proactive approach. "Solid fundamentals and ongoing innovation keep my outlook positive, as a breakout above GBX 655 could quickly shift sentiment and unlock new upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was exhibiting mixed technical signals and faced modest downside risk amid operational progress. The latest developments reinforce a cautious short-term view, with traders advised to monitor for a potential breakdown below GBX 620 as continued selling pressure could trigger further declines.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.