Tesco stock price forecast: £473.58 support in focus as TSCO drops 2.46%

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Tesco drops 2.46% today to GBX482.75

Highlights

Tesco is advancing its £750 million share buyback programme, backed by robust free cash flow rising 11.8% to nearly £2 billion.
Significant shareholder returns continue, with more than £1 billion earmarked for buybacks and dividends buoyed by stronger cash generation.
TSCO trades above key supports with bullish trend signals, expected to consolidate between GBX 472 and GBX 492 with high probability of further upside.

Buyback momentum and cash flow strength amid persistent selling pressure

Tesco has continued executing its £750 million share buyback programme, authorizing new phases of repurchases in coordination with Citigroup Global Markets Limited on major exchanges. The company recorded an 11.8% increase in free cash flow, reaching nearly £2 billion, which supported rising dividends and over £1 billion being allocated to share buybacks. The buyback programme is scheduled to conclude by April 2027, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought oscillators signal buyer fatigue as bullish momentum persists

On the technical side, TSCO currently trades above the SMA-20 (GBX 477.94), SMA-50 (GBX 479.54), and SMA-200 (GBX 447.14). The Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily chart is at GBX 473.58, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: the daily MACD remains positive, while the ADX at 13.27 signals weak trend strength. RSI reads 57.02, Stoch RSI is elevated at 72.66, and CCI stands at 90.92, with both Stoch RSI and CCI approaching overbought territory. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is at 11.34 and flagged as overbought, suggesting buyer dominance may be peaking. The Awesome Oscillator continues to reflect underlying bullishness. Today's session saw TSCO move from an open of GBX 491.00 toward the lower end of the range at GBX 476.80–491.00, with moderate intraday volatility and some divergence between overbought oscillators and ongoing momentum.

Consolidation expected as breakout and support risks define short-term range

In the short term, TSCO is expected to trade within the GBX 472.00–492.00 range, reflecting the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The primary scenario envisions price consolidating between immediate support at GBX 473.58 and resistance near GBX 491–492. A confirmed breakout above resistance could pave the way for further gains, whereas a drop below support would open the door for a potential test of GBX 472 or below.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Tesco’s share buyback and improving free cash flow as clear signs of fundamental strength. He believes the technical setup remains constructive, given prices are above key averages and support is well defined at GBX 473.58. Though some short-term oscillators flag overbought conditions, the overall sentiment remains positive, with momentum indicators still bullish. In his words: “Despite short-term volatility, Tesco’s financial discipline and buyback program support a scenario where bulls retain the upper hand as long as GBX 472 holds.”

In a recent review, analysts highlighted Tesco’s broadly bullish technical outlook, supported by improved financials and the initiation of an expanded share buyback programme. Ongoing resilience above key moving averages and evolving buyback activity suggest traders should closely monitor for sustained momentum shifts, especially if TSCO challenges the upper end of its defined trading range in the coming weeks.

Source of Data: TSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.