No major move for Gold as Prime Minister Modi urges gold purchase halt

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Gold drops 0.66% today to $4,684.06

Highlights

India raised gold and silver import duties to 15% from 6%, curbing demand to protect foreign reserves amid regional tensions.
The move increases the risk of smuggling and unofficial bullion imports as regulatory pressures intensify, while Middle East unrest keeps market uncertainty high.
Gold remains in a broadly bullish technical pattern, expected to trade between $4,630 and $4,740 as overbought signals limit upside momentum.

Regulatory crackdown and Middle East tension sustain downside pressure

India’s government implemented a sharp increase in import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6% effective Wednesday, introducing a direct check on domestic bullion demand while aiming to protect foreign exchange reserves during heightened regional tensions. Additional regulatory pressure followed Prime Minister Modi’s appeal for Indian citizens to avoid gold purchases, and industry participants have raised concerns about potential shifts toward smuggling and unofficial trade routes as a result. Renewed threats of military escalation in the Middle East by the U.S. have maintained an environment of elevated uncertainty in the global gold market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought oscillators and weak trend signal divergence near resistance

On the technical front, gold remains above the SMA-20 at $4,668.91, the SMA-50 at $4,652.86, and the SMA-200 at $4,586.84. Resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,693.86, which is currently above price. Daily MACD is neutral, ADX signals a weak trend, and RSI at 53 reflects mild buying momentum. Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) read as overbought and buyer-dominated, while CCI remains neutral and the Awesome Oscillator is positive; however, overbought oscillators alongside the lack of MACD confirmation suggest underlying divergence.

Sideways range persists as price tests key support and resistance

Over the coming five sessions, gold is expected to trade within a volatility band of $4,630 to $4,740 around current levels. The baseline scenario favors a consolidation phase in the $4,650–$4,700 corridor as the market digests recent gains. A break above $4,695–$4,700 would signal a bullish attempt toward the upper weekly band, while a move below $4,650 could trigger a minor correction down toward $4,630.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees recent regulatory steps in India and ongoing geopolitical risks as important drivers shaping near-term gold sentiment. He believes the hike in Indian import duties is a decisive move that should dampen official demand, but uncertainty from Middle East tensions keeps global risk appetite for gold elevated. Technical structure remains intact above moving averages, with the market poised for consolidation before the next directional move. Karapetjanc notes, “Gold’s underlying resilience amid policy shifts and regional instability suggests that any corrective dips toward $4,650 may offer new buying opportunities for disciplined investors.”

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was sustaining a bullish technical structure even as momentum indicators and external pressures signaled potential for near-term consolidation. The current environment, shaped by India's sharply higher import duties and heightened geopolitical tensions, reinforces the likelihood of sideways trading, with a decisive move above $4,700 or below $4,650 serving as the next inflection point for directional momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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