Gold price forecast: $4,720 resistance as XAU remains rangebound

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Gold rises 0.17% today to $4,696.38

Highlights

India's sharp increase in gold and silver import tariffs to 15% is set to constrict local supply and may pressure global bullion markets.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation is delaying hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing ongoing support for gold prices despite stronger US yields.
Gold trades on strong short- and medium-term momentum, with next week likely to see a $4,650–$4,800 range amid consolidation and a bullish bias given prevailing technical signals.

Tariff hike and hot US inflation drive gold’s supply-demand squeeze

The Indian government’s decision to raise gold and silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% creates a substantial new cost barrier for buyers in one of the world’s most important bullion markets, likely restricting imports and creating upward pressure on global gold availability. The immediate local market response was a surge in Indian gold futures, reflecting expectations of tighter supply and strong physical demand. Additionally, recent US inflation data came in hotter than anticipated, curbing optimism for Federal Reserve rate cuts and keeping gold prices broadly supported despite stronger US yields.

Overbought signals and seller pressure complicate trend continuation

Gold is trading above the SMA-20 ($4,662.51), SMA-50 ($4,656.69), and SMA-200 ($4,589.12). The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,693.86 serves as immediate technical support, while the day’s trading range spans $4,672.02 to $4,716.31. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD is neutral, while ADX reveals ongoing seller pressure. The RSI remains in buy territory, but both the Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) show overbought conditions, indicating a dominance of buyers yet suggesting short-term caution. The CCI is neutral. No gap occurred at the open, and intraday volatility is moderate, with price action settling near the midpoint of the daily range. Oscillator divergence and overbought BBP complicate clear trend continuation in the immediate term.

High probability of gains as bullish signals outweigh weakness

Over the next five sessions, a price corridor of $4,650 to $4,800 is expected based on typical volatility and current price structure. With three out of four weekly signals (RSI-w1, MACD-w1, MA-50-w1) remaining bullish and only ADX-w1 flagging weakness, the probability of further gains is assessed as high (over 80%), making a substantial decline unlikely. The base scenario sees continued consolidation within this volatility band. A sustained move above $4,720 would open scope for an advance toward $4,800, while failure to hold above $4,690 support could bring a retreat toward $4,650 in the short term.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that India’s steep tariff hike is a major regulatory event, tightening supply in a critical gold market and lending fundamental support for prices. He sees that strong physical demand is being offset by mixed signals from technical momentum and the recent US inflation report, which curbs optimism for further gains. The analyst remains cautious given overbought conditions and resistance near $4,720. "Unless gold can decisively clear $4,720, I expect consolidation and would avoid new longs until clearer momentum emerges."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was sustaining a bullish structure despite mixed signals from momentum indicators and heightened regulatory and geopolitical pressures. The current setup not only confirms that bullish bias but, with robust resilience above technical support and fresh upward catalysts from Indian tariffs and resilient US yields, positions a break above $4,720 as the key inflection point for next-leg gains toward $4,800 in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.