U.S. gasoline prices stay elevated as Strait of Hormuz disruption lifts fuel risks

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US gasoline prices & Hormuz risk

Highlights

Average U.S. gasoline prices, previously below $3 a gallon, have risen due to continued Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption after the Iran war.
Weiss Ratings notes oil shipments may not recover by June as Iran sustains crude exports through rail to China and maintains control over the Strait despite sanctions and military pressure.
Persistent insecurity in the Persian Gulf could cause long-term risk premiums for oil transport, maintaining upward pressure on U.S. gasoline prices as seen in post-ceasefire Red Sea shipping.

Hormuz disruption clouds fuel price outlook

As reported by Weiss Ratings, the latest rise in gasoline prices reflects continued disruption to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint for global crude flows. The analysis says average U.S. gasoline prices were below $3 a gallon before the Iran war halted shipping, and argues there is still no clear sign of a near-term peak.

The report says the White House appears to be counting on the Strait reopening by June, allowing oil shipments to recover and crude prices to settle back below $70 a barrel. But it describes those assumptions as increasingly difficult, saying Iran’s position remains intact despite aerial bombardment, a U.S. naval blockade and pressure on Tehran’s finances.

Weiss Ratings also points to signs that Iran is still moving crude through a rail link to China and receiving support flights from Russia, while the IRGC maintains control over the Strait. In that scenario, the analysis says a naval blockade alone is unlikely to force a reopening, and a larger U.S. ground operation remains politically unlikely because Trump has rejected sending U.S. troops into another foreign war.

Political and market pressure builds

The piece says prolonged insecurity in the Persian Gulf could keep ship operators and marine insurers from returning in pre-war numbers even if military operations ease or political leadership changes in Tehran. That would leave oil transport exposed to persistent risk premiums, extending pressure on gasoline prices across the U.S. energy market.

Weiss Ratings compares the situation with Red Sea shipping after Trump announced a bilateral ceasefire with the Houthis on May 6, 2025. It says traffic there still has not returned to pre-ceasefire levels a year later because commercial operators remain wary, suggesting the same pattern could hold in Hormuz and keep fuel prices elevated for longer.

In our earlier article on WTI crude trading above $100 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, we noted that markets were pricing in a sustained geopolitical risk premium on fears of supply disruptions through the key chokepoint. We also highlighted how falling global and U.S. inventories, record U.S. crude exports, and limited ability from OPEC+ and shale producers to fully offset losses were keeping prices elevated and highly headline-sensitive.

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