Silver slides as US Treasury yields rebound sharply

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Silver slides 1.49% to $74.72 today

Highlights

US 10-year Treasury yields surged to multi-month highs, boosting the opportunity cost of holding silver and weighing on prices.
Softening demand and industrial divergence within the metals sector, alongside inflation risks and US-Iran tensions, heightened market volatility.
Silver trades below key short- and medium-term trend levels with strong bearish momentum; price is likely to consolidate between $72.00 and $76.00, with downside risks dominant.

Yield surge and sector divergence weigh on silver demand

US Treasury yields rebounded sharply, with the 10-year note reaching multi-month highs and increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver. The broader metals complex experienced industrial divergence and yield pressure, leading to uneven participation across the sector and further softening demand. Following prior sessions, increased inflationary risks and US-Iran geopolitical tensions were also reported, adding volatility to the commodities landscape.

Oversold signals deepen as sellers dominate below resistance

Technically, XAG is trading below the SMA-20 ($77.62) and SMA-50 ($76.16), but remains above the SMA-200 ($73.45), which provides medium-term support. The daily Ichimoku Kijun line at $80.13 is a pronounced resistance level at current prices. Momentum is mixed: the MACD is neutral, and the ADX is low at 19.45, indicating no clear trend. Oscillators show oversold signals, with a Stoch RSI of 11.55 suggesting deep oversold conditions, while RSI stands at 46.22 (neutral-to-bearish), CCI is near neutral (-44.32), and BBP at -1.48 points to dominant seller activity intraday. The Awesome Oscillator displays a strong negative value, reinforcing continued downtrend signals.

Further declines likely as upside momentum remains weak

Over the next five trading days, silver is likely to remain within a typical volatility band of $72.00–$76.00, with some potential for sideways consolidation. The probability of a significant price increase is low (less than 20%), so further downside or flat action is more likely. A move above resistance near $80.00 would be required for a bullish reversal, but this appears improbable given current momentum readings. If negative momentum persists and support around $72.00 is breached, the price could experience deeper declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees silver under pressure from rising US Treasury yields and weaker demand across the metals complex. He believes macro forces and shifting market sentiment are adding to volatility, though key long-term support is still holding. The analyst remains moderately constructive as long as $72.00 stays intact, but notes clear momentum is lacking for a bullish reversal. "Any sustained recovery in silver will require a shift in yields or a clear break above $80.00 — until then, I expect mostly range-bound action with a slight downside bias."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver's outlook was characterized by consolidation amid receding geopolitical risks and a watchful stance on upcoming macroeconomic developments. With the resurgence of US-Iran tensions and sharper pressure from rising Treasury yields now dominating, traders should closely monitor the $72.00 support zone as a decisive break could accelerate further losses.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.