What triggered Euro vs Indian Rupee price's latest move lower

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Euro/rupee slides 0.57% today

Highlights

EUR/INR maintains a medium- and long-term bullish trend, holding above all major moving averages despite recent volatility.
Momentum remains positive, with MACD and ADX issuing strong buy signals and RSI showing bullish conditions, though Stochastic RSI indicates downside exhaustion.
The pair is likely to consolidate between ₹109.70 and ₹111.74 over the next five sessions, with a high probability of further upward movement if resistance is breached.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that EUR/INR failed to hold early gains and slipped below the session opening, with price action exposing renewed downward pressures. He highlights the lack of meaningful news catalysts, making the recent gap-down even more concerning for bulls. Technical momentum looks positive overall, but the intraday move diverges from underlying strength, raising caution. Kharitonov points to overstretched short-term indicators, which may signal a further pullback ahead. "Traders should avoid complacency — absent fresh demand, even a bullish trend faces real correction risk around ₹111.74," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the overall EUR/INR structure as robust, supported by strong weekly technicals and persistent momentum. He views the current retreat as a typical consolidation within a prevailing uptrend, with volatility bands favoring further upside. The lack of adverse macro headlines helps reinforce positive sentiment and high probability for gains. "The bullish structure remains intact — breakout above ₹111.74 would confirm further growth and open up attractive trading setups for the week," he states.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, believes session sentiment is marked by buyer dominance despite short-term pressure and an opening gap. He sees dynamic support near the Ichimoku Kijun providing tactical entry points for nimble traders. With oscillators showing downside exhaustion, Turakhiya expects a possible rebound if support holds. "Quick sentiment shifts mean short-term opportunities are plentiful, but waiting for a clear break above ₹111.74 or confirmed support at ₹111.22 is key for timing entries," he advises.

Upside momentum diverges from intraday gap-driven weakness

Momentum remains positive on the daily chart, with both the MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) showing Buy signals and indicating ongoing upward strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory, while the Stochastic RSI signals oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive (0.2433), confirming session buyer dominance and signaling a strong buy. The nearest dynamic support is the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹111.2261, with the 50-day average as the next support on a larger pullback. The daily move is negative as EUR/INR fell with a downside opening gap of about ₹0.29, trading near the session’s low with intraday volatility at 0.50%. Price action points to renewed pressure after the gap, with intraday momentum diverging from the strong underlying daily trend.

Previously it was reported that ongoing central bank intervention and supportive technical trends reinforced a bullish outlook for the EUR/INR pair. The latest data not only strengthens that view but also indicates that, with all major weekly indicators in buy mode, traders should closely monitor for a potential bullish breakout above ₹111.74 in the near term.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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