Washington steps up pressure on Cuba with murder accusation against Raul Castro

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Washington steps up pressure on Cuba

All news

Top Stories

Editors' Picks

Crypto News

Financial News

Currencies

Market Voices

Companies

Regulators News

Eugene Komchuk

22.05.2026

Washington steps up pressure on Cuba with murder accusation against Raul Castro — The U.S. wants regime change in Cuba

The U.S. Department of Justice on Wednesday unsealed an indictment against former Cuban President Raul Castro. He was charged with murder in connection with a 1996 incident in which Cuban military forces shot down two planes.

According to CNBC, the decision came on May 20 — a symbolically important date recognized as the official birth of the Republic of Cuba. The move marked one of the sharpest escalations in tensions between Washington and Havana in recent times.

FBI Director Kash Patel called the indictment of Castro and five other people “a major step toward accountability.” The measure became part of a broader strategy by President Donald Trump aimed at regime change in Cuba. It has already included tighter economic sanctions and efforts since January to impose an oil blockade on the island.

The pressure has worsened the economic crisis and put Cuba through what may be its most serious test since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Cuban Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said last week that the island had run out of oil and diesel, describing the situation as “extremely tense.”

Against this backdrop, some Cuban officials have warned in recent weeks about the risk of possible U.S. military intervention.

The situation is further complicated by media reports that Cuba is allegedly building up an arsenal of military drones from Russia and Iran, which could potentially be used against U.S. targets. At the same time, according to media reports, the Trump administration is conducting intelligence-gathering flights off the coast of Cuba — a pattern reminiscent of the scenarios that preceded U.S. military operations in Venezuela and Iran.

Antoni Kapcia, professor of Latin American history at the University of Nottingham, said he doubts Washington is seriously considering direct military action against Cuba. According to him, the Cuban state, by contrast, has always taken the military threat from the United States seriously and prepared for such a scenario.

Kapcia noted that the Pentagon has long assumed that a military operation against Cuba could lead to unacceptably high losses among U.S. soldiers. In his view, this explains the inconsistency of U.S. policy: from backchannel negotiations to threats of immediate action.

The expert added that, for now, Trump is openly betting on the economic strangulation of the Cuban system. Such an approach is cheaper than war and is already making life even harder for ordinary Cubans.

What’s next for Cuba

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Wednesday rejected the indictment against Raul Castro. On social media, he called it a political maneuver with no legal basis and said Washington is using such steps to justify possible military aggression against Cuba.

Trump previously spoke about the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and said the White House could turn its attention to Havana after the war with Iran. He also claimed that he could do whatever he wanted with Cuba and suggested that he would have the “honor” of “taking Cuba.”

Robert Munks, head of Americas research at Verisk Maplecroft, believes the Trump administration’s exact intentions remain unclear. However, according to him, Washington’s current posture points less to immediate direct intervention and more to an attempt to let pressure do the work.

The main existential risk for Cuba, Munks says, is not foreign intervention, but whether the state can “keep the lights on long enough” to maintain control.

He noted that security forces are likely to contain unrest in the short term. But further power outages could deepen food and water shortages, creating the risk of serious instability.

Munks added that the worsening humanitarian crisis remains a wildcard that could force either side to improvise. He expects more aid from regional countries such as Mexico and Uruguay, but stressed that the U.S. blockade will continue to shape the everyday lives of ordinary Cubans.

Consequences of the Cuban conflict

The situation in Cuba is unlikely to directly reshape the global market picture, but it could increase investor nervousness around geopolitical risks. If U.S. pressure continues to grow, markets will watch first of all for possible fuel supply disruptions, a migration crisis, stronger sanctions, and the reaction of countries in the region. The most sensitive areas could be the oil market, Latin American emerging-market assets, and companies linked to logistics, tourism, and regional trade.

For investors, Cuba matters less as an independent economic force than as a potential source of instability near U.S. borders. Any signs of military escalation or a humanitarian crisis could support demand for safe-haven assets, increase caution in markets, and add a risk premium to Latin American assets. For now, however, the base-case scenario does not look like an immediate military operation, but rather the continuation of economic pressure that will gradually worsen the domestic situation and keep Cuba among the region’s geopolitical risks.

As a reminder, the U.S. State Department recently expanded sanctions against Cuba.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.