Nvidia stock rises to $112 as market shrugs off China curbs

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Dmytro Kharkov

16.04.2025

Nvidia stock rises to $112 as market shrugs off China curbs — Nvidia has room to move higher before hitting momentum-based resistance.

As of April 16, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading at $112 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $2.7 trillion.

The stock has shown some consolidation recently after reaching all-time highs in early March, indicating investor caution amid regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties. Technical support lies near the $105 level, where the 50-day moving average (currently around $106.3) also provides dynamic support. A breakdown below this could expose Nvidia to a short-term pullback toward the $98 level. On the upside, resistance is forming around the $115–$117 zone, which corresponds to recent local highs and Fibonacci retracement levels from the March rally.

The stock’s trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 36.59, while its forward P/E is 23.98, reflecting investor expectations of strong earnings growth ahead. Nvidia reported TTM revenue of $130.5 billion and net income of $72.88 billion, resulting in a stellar profit margin of 55.85%. Its return on equity (ROE) stands at an impressive 119.18%, signaling highly efficient capital utilization. The company has $43.21 billion in cash and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 12.95%, confirming its strong balance sheet position. Free cash flow remains robust at $44.17 billion, providing Nvidia with ample flexibility to invest in R&D, M&A, and shareholder returns.

NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.

The relative strength index (RSI) for Nvidia currently stands near 58, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt. This places the stock comfortably between overbought (70) and oversold (30) thresholds, suggesting that Nvidia has room to move higher before hitting momentum-based resistance. Volume analysis shows a steady base of support, with recent upticks in buying volume reinforcing the $105–$107 demand zone. The MACD line remains above the signal line, albeit narrowing, hinting at a potential crossover if upward momentum weakens. Overall, the technical indicators support a cautiously bullish short-term outlook, provided the stock maintains support above the 50-day moving average.

Fair value decline amid China export restrictions

A key headwind for Nvidia is the U.S. government’s increasingly strict export restrictions on advanced semiconductor products to China. These controls have directly impacted Nvidia’s ability to ship its high-end A100 and H100 AI chips to one of its largest international markets. MorningStar has recently revised its fair value estimate for Nvidia downward, citing “heightened China restrictions” as a structural threat to future earnings potential.

Investment banks are also starting to adjust their models. Citi, for example, lowered its price target to $150 per share, noting a possible revenue hit in 2025 and 2026 as Chinese sales face regulatory barriers. While Nvidia has attempted to develop less powerful chips like the H800 for the Chinese market to comply with U.S. rules, future tightening of restrictions could neutralize these workarounds.

The growing rift in U.S.-China tech relations is a double-edged sword for Nvidia. On one hand, it reduces access to a massive and fast-growing AI and cloud computing market. On the other hand, it strengthens demand from domestic U.S. customers and allies as Western countries aim to reduce their dependence on Chinese tech infrastructure. Nonetheless, the near- to medium-term risk premium on Nvidia’s China exposure is likely to remain elevated, and that is now increasingly priced into forward valuations.

Investment scenarios

In a bullish scenario, Nvidia successfully offsets lost Chinese revenue through stronger demand in the U.S. and Europe, driven by AI adoption across industries. Under this assumption, the stock could break above the $117 resistance and resume its uptrend, potentially targeting $130–$140 by Q3 2025.

In a more cautious base case, Nvidia trades range-bound between $100 and $115 as investors monitor export policy developments and upcoming earnings reports. A bearish scenario would unfold if further China restrictions emerge or if U.S. demand for AI infrastructure stalls. This could drag the stock below the $100 psychological level, testing long-term support at $90.

Nvidia plans to invest up to $500 billion over the next four years to develop AI supercomputing infrastructure in the U.S., aiming to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. The move aligns with U.S. policy goals amid rising geopolitical tensions and tighter controls on tech exports to China.

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