Global markets rally as Iran deal progress eases oil concerns

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Global markets rally on Iran deal

Highlights

Brent crude futures fall 5% to $78.96 and West Texas Intermediate drops 5.8% to $76.05 as Iran sanctions relief expected after Geneva agreement signing.
Dow Jones Industrial Average hits record 51,999.67 as investors rotate into cyclical stocks, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite decline amid chipmaker selloff.
SpaceX market capitalization peaks at $2.94 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft, before ending at $2.65 trillion, with some investors questioning its valuation.

Iran agreement progress drives market moves

As reported by CNBC, the memorandum of understanding tied to the Iran conflict appears to be holding ahead of a planned Friday signing in Geneva, with no sudden reversal by any party so far. The report says people familiar with the matter expect oil sanctions relief for Iran to take effect immediately after the agreement is signed.

That prospect is strengthening expectations of improved global oil supply. Brent crude futures fall 5% to close at $78.96 a barrel, the first time the international benchmark drops below $80 since March, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lose 5.8% to settle at $76.05.

In Washington, the developing agreement is also drawing criticism from Congress. Some lawmakers say Trump should not simply send the text of the memorandum and should instead seek formal signoff from legislators.

Equities rotate as Trump pursues broader foreign policy goals

Beyond Iran, Trump is again focusing on the Ukraine-Russia war as he looks for another foreign policy breakthrough. At the G7 meeting in France, he says he will do whatever he can, pledges further support to Kyiv and urges Moscow to make a deal, though the multi-year conflict is unlikely to be resolved quickly.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rises to a record high of 51,999.67 as investors rotate out of chipmakers and into cyclical stocks. The tech retreat leaves the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lower, with Advanced Micro Devices down more than 7%, Micron Technology falling 6% and Nvidia losing more than 2%.

SpaceX stands out from the broader technology pullback, extending its rally to become the U.S. fifth most valuable company during mid-morning trading. Its market capitalization touches $2.94 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft's $2.93 trillion valuation, before ending the day at $2.65 trillion.

Not all investors are convinced by that valuation. Michael Burry, known for The Big Short, says Tuesday that he has no position in SpaceX and questions the scale of the company's market value, describing it as a business generating less than $20 billion in annual revenue.

Our earlier market update on the Fed decision and oil below $80 a barrel outlined how investors were juggling plunging energy prices with anticipation of the first policy call under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. We also noted how Treasury yields and a busy corporate calendar—including names like Amazon, CrowdStrike, and SpaceX—were shaping short-term equity positioning alongside the slide in the energy sector.

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