WTI crude oil price dips below $67 as inventory build offsets geopolitical tailwinds
WTI crude oil futures traded slightly lower on Thursday, slipping below $67 per barrel, as rising U.S. inventories and signs of higher OPEC+ output weighed on market sentiment. The decline comes despite earlier gains driven by geopolitical developments, including Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and optimism over new trade agreements.
Highlights
- U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.85 million barrels, the largest weekly increase in three months
- WTI trades near $66.80 amid technical compression and failure to break above $69 resistance
- OPEC+ signals production increase of 411,000 bpd in August, adding supply-side pressure
Inventory build challenges demand outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed a surprise 3.85 million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories last week, defying expectations for a 2 million-barrel decline. The build marked the largest since early April and raised concerns about weakening demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. The report follows weeks of mixed inventory trends, and the latest figure casts doubt on the strength of the summer driving season.
USOIL pirice dynamics (Source: TradingView)
OPEC+, meanwhile, is expected to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, pushing the group’s total supply hike for 2025 to 1.78 million bpd—more than 1.5 percent of global demand. The increase could further pressure prices if demand fails to accelerate in the second half of the year.
Technical consolidation signals indecision
On the charts, WTI crude oil is trading around $66.80 after pulling back from an intraday high near $67.50. Price remains capped beneath the $68.50–$69.00 resistance zone, and recent action suggests a symmetrical consolidation phase may be unfolding. Technical indicators show narrowing Bollinger Bands and a compressed cluster of exponential moving averages (20 to 200) between $66.09 and $66.93—typically a precursor to larger directional moves.
The MACD on the 30-minute timeframe has flattened after a bearish crossover, and RSI has softened to near-neutral levels, indicating fading short-term momentum. A decisive break above $67.50 could trigger a run toward $70.30, while a drop below $65.70 may shift the bias back to bearish.
In previous sessions, we highlighted the importance of the $64.00–$65.00 demand zone as the base for WTI’s recovery. While bulls reclaimed this region in late June, price has since struggled to overcome resistance near $69.00. The market remains in transition, awaiting a clear breakout or breakdown.
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