LVMH stock falls 1.2% amid cautious outlook for Chinese market

Highlights

- LVMH is trading at €464.15, down 1.2% amid continued weakness in fashion and leather goods sales.

- Analysts remain broadly positive, citing brand strength, portfolio streamlining, and geographic diversification as long-term drivers.

- The stock is consolidating between €450 and €480, with a breakout above €480 potentially opening the path toward €550.

From a technical standpoint, the momentum picture is subdued. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in slightly negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 46 suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The 20-day moving average is flattening, the 50-day remains mildly downward sloping, and the 200-day continues to trend lower, indicating that longer-term sentiment has yet to turn decisively bullish.

Support is forming near €450, a level that has been tested multiple times since mid-July. Immediate resistance is seen around €480, with a breakout above this zone required to shift the short-term trend toward the €500 mark. Given the muted technical signals, LVMH’s next decisive move is likely to be news-driven rather than purely momentum-based.

LVMH stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

This technical setup implies that traders may remain cautious, favoring a wait-and-see approach until a clear catalyst emerges. The narrow trading range between support at €450 and resistance at €480 reflects a balance of buying and selling pressure, with neither side yet able to dominate. If volume expands alongside a move beyond these boundaries, it could signal the start of a new trend; otherwise, LVMH may continue to oscillate within this band as market participants look to macroeconomic data, earnings updates, or strategic announcements for direction.

Analyst upgrades meet macro and sector challenges

LVMH is attracting fresh attention from Wall Street following Goldman Sachs’ decision to place the stock on its conviction buy list. Goldman’s bullish stance is rooted in LVMH’s ability to weather luxury market slowdowns and emerge stronger in subsequent upcycles. The investment bank sees upside potential of roughly 18% from current levels, with its price target aligning with the broader analyst consensus of around €552. Some estimates go as high as €873, reflecting confidence in the company’s brand power and pricing strength.

At the same time, LVMH is facing the same sector-wide challenges impacting other luxury players. Fashion and leather goods sales fell 9% in the latest quarter, pressured by weaker tourist traffic in Europe and evolving preferences among younger consumers. Demand in China, once a major growth engine, has been inconsistent due to shifting macroeconomic conditions.

In response, LVMH has moved to streamline its brand portfolio. The group is in discussions to sell Marc Jacobs for an estimated €930 million, a step aimed at focusing resources on its most profitable divisions. Additionally, LVMH is working to mitigate geopolitical risks by expanding its U.S. manufacturing base, including a second Louis Vuitton factory in Texas. Chairman Bernard Arnault has also engaged with political leaders to discourage trade disputes that could disrupt luxury exports.

Consolidation base or setup for recovery

LVMH’s share price trajectory in the coming months will depend heavily on consumer sentiment in key markets, the pace of recovery in Chinese luxury demand, and execution on its portfolio strategy. Seasonal trends in the luxury sector, particularly the impact of holiday shopping periods and fashion show cycles, could also influence short-term price movements.

In a bullish scenario, a rebound in Asia and positive reception to the Marc Jacobs divestment could lift the stock toward the €550–€600 range, aligning with analyst price targets. Such a move would likely require confirmation of stabilizing sales trends and renewed momentum in fashion and leather goods.

U.S. tariffs of up to 15% on certain European luxury imports have pressured LVMH, with mid-tier products facing the greatest demand risk from price increases. To mitigate the impact, the company is expanding U.S. production, including a planned Louis Vuitton factory in Texas to reduce exposure to trade-related costs.

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