Silver price prediction: XAG/USD recovery momentum holds ahead of PCE data

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
XAG/USD recovery momentum

All news

Top Stories

Editors' Picks

Crypto News

Financial News

Currencies

Market Voices

Companies

Regulators News

Sholanke Dele

29.08.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD recovery momentum holds ahead of PCE data — PCE inflation data set to guide Silver weekly close

Silver price action this week has reflected a shift in sentiment, shaped by both technical factors and fundamental developments.

The early part of the week leaned bearish, but the 20-day exponential moving average at $38.07 provided strong support and kept the market from deeper losses. That floor created the base for a renewed rally in the second half of the week, where Thursday stood out as a decisive session.

- Silver slips below $39 as traders await pivotal U.S. PCE data.

- 20-day EMA continues to anchor silver despite shifts in sentiment.

- Thursday surge marked by strongest daily traded volume in over two weeks.

On Thursday, silver gained 1.4% to reach $39.12, its highest level in five weeks. What made this move significant was not only the size of the price increase, but also the context in which it occurred. The session recorded the largest daily trading volume in over two weeks, confirming strong participation. Even more notable, the rally unfolded after the release of U.S. GDP and labor data that came in stronger than forecast. Ordinarily, such upbeat numbers would strengthen the dollar and weigh on silver, but instead, expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns around Federal Reserve independence directed flows into safe havens, driving silver higher.

Silver price trajectory (August 2025). Source: Tradingview

Today, Friday, August 29, the follow-through on Thursday’s surge has been limited. In the Asian session, silver slipped back below the week’s opening price, touching an intraday low of $38.77. By the European session, however, the market recovered part of those losses and was trading near $38.95, leaving the metal down 0.3% on the day. The hesitation reflects traders’ caution ahead of a key fundamental release later today.

PCE inflation report central to silver’s weekly close direction

The spotlight now turns to the July U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Market expectations point to headline PCE rising 2.6% year-on-year, while core PCE is projected at 2.9%. The outcome of this report will play a pivotal role in determining silver’s weekly close. If the data comes in stronger than expected, the dollar could gain strength, leading investors to scale back rate cut bets. That would stall silver’s current intraday recovery and potentially push prices lower into the weekly close. Conversely, if the PCE print aligns with or falls below forecast, silver could extend its recovery and preserve the gains built on Thursday’s surge.

Overall, silver’s price movement this week illustrates how technical levels, macroeconomic data, and investor sentiment intersect. The 20-day EMA continues to act as a critical reference point for buyers, while the PCE report sets the tone for whether silver ends the week bullish or surrenders its recent advance.

Silver trades near $38.65 after an early rebound, with U.S. data set to shape direction. Silver price outlook depends on holding 100 EMA support on 1hr chart.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.