Silver price prediction: XAG/USD nears $50 all-time high on Fed cut hopes

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06.10.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD nears $50 all-time high on Fed cut hopes — Silver extends 7-week rally

Silver [XAG/USD] began the new week, extending its multi-week rally, as traders continued to price in aggressive rate cut expectations from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

By Monday, October 6, the metal surged 1.6% during the first European session of the week, pushing prices near $48.75. The move places silver less than one dollar away from the $50 all-time high, reinforcing the metal’s dominant position in 2025 among major assets.

- Silver nears $50 as traders bet on multiple Fed rate cuts before year's end.

- Silver prices extend a seven-week rally as easing expectations lift safe-haven demand.

- Fed rate cut hopes and strong RSI readings fuel silver’s push toward $50.

Silver’s outperformance has been notable. Year to date, the white metal has advanced 68.5%, outpacing gold’s 48% and Bitcoin’s 33%. This consistent strength highlights strong demand across both investment and industrial segments. The momentum stems partly from supportive macro conditions that favor non-yielding assets. The absence of official non-farm payroll data on Friday, due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, did little to deter buyers. Investors focused on other labor and inflation figures that validated expectations for Fed easing by the end of the month.

Silver price dynamics (Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets now price in a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 83% probability of another in December. Those expectations have reinforced demand for silver as traders position for lower yields and a softer dollar. At the same time, worries that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could dampen economic performance have increased appetite for safe-haven and real asset exposure. Broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, together with rising demand for silver in AI and clean energy infrastructure, have strengthened the metal’s investment appeal.

Silver RSI above 80 confirms overbought momentum as buyers maintain control

From a technical perspective, silver has recorded gains in each of the past seven weeks. The previous week’s rally was accompanied by the largest weekly trading volume since April, confirming strong participation behind the move. Momentum indicators show extended strength, as XAG/USD daily RSI has held in overbought territory above 80 since mid-September. The four-hour RSI also crossed into overbought levels for the first time this month, showing short-term intensity in buying pressure.

Looking ahead, the near-term resistance sits at the $49 mark, which is breached, would likely bring the $50 psychological level into play. Support now lies at $48, a former resistance zone that capped last week’s high but has since flipped to act as a technical floor. As long as prices hold above this pivot, silver’s trend structure continues to favor further upside in the days ahead.

We discussed silver extending its bullish streak into a seventh week amid stable PCE data. While Dollar weakness and Fed cut prospects continued to fuel the rally.

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