Silver price prediction: XAG/USD weakens 3% as Fed minutes curb rate cut expectations

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20.11.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD weakens 3% as Fed minutes curb rate cut expectations — Silver dropped to $50.75 after dollar strength

Silver [XAG/USD] fell on Thursday, November 20, as the U.S. dollar sustained its fifth consecutive day of strength, driven by reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The stronger greenback pressured the non-yielding metal and erased a large part of its midweek recovery.

- Silver dropped to $50.75 after dollar strength erased earlier midweek recovery gains.

- Fed minutes rate-cut odds, lowered from 60% to 30% triggered silver’s selloff.

- Silver traders eye $50.3 support ahead of U.S. employment data for near-term direction.

Earlier in the week, silver had defied dollar strength by rebounding from the $49.5 support zone to reach $52.45, its highest level of the week. However, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday limited the advance. The minutes showed that policymakers were divided over future rate adjustments and maintained a cautious stance, prompting traders to reassess their rate-cut bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate reduction has dropped to nearly 30%, down from around 60% a week earlier.

Silver price dynamics (Oct - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

This shift in outlook triggered profit-taking in the metals market, causing silver to pull back sharply from $52.45 to a close at $51.35 on Wednesday. The selloff persisted into Thursday’s European session, pushing silver lower to 50.75, a 1.2% loss for the day and a total decline of more than 3% from the midweek high. Consequently, the week-to-date gain has narrowed from 4.5% to less than 1%, as traders scaled back exposure ahead of major U.S. data releases.

Silver outlook tied to Non-Farm Payrolls outcome and dollar reaction post-release

Market focus has now shifted to the long-delayed Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release later today. The report, postponed by 48 days due to the U.S. government shutdown, is expected to show job creation of 53,000 compared to 22,000 in the prior reading. A stronger-than-expected print could strengthen the dollar further and weigh on silver, while a softer figure may boost expectations for monetary easing and trigger a rebound in the metal.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour RSI has dropped back into bearish territory, suggesting that downside momentum may persist ahead of the jobs report. The 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart near $50.3 now acts as a key short-term support. If this level breaks, it may open the door to deeper losses toward the 49.5 zone. Conversely, a weaker dollar reaction to the labor data could revive buying interest and lift silver back toward $52 or possibly higher, depending on how markets interpret the Fed’s policy path.

We discussed how silver advanced 1.3% to 51.30 after rebounding from the 49.5 support level. The recovery unfolded despite a stronger U.S. Dollar Index, highlighting renewed safe-haven demand.

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