S&P 500 posted 25.54% annualized returns when NDR sentiment fell below 41.5, Chris Ciovacco notes

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16.03.2026

S&P 500 posted 25.54% annualized returns when NDR sentiment fell below 41.5, Chris Ciovacco notes — NDR pessimism and S&P 500 gains

NDR sentiment on March 12, 2026 was recorded at a highly pessimistic 28.89. Chris Ciovacco highlights that, in the period from 1995 to 2026, the S&P 500 achieved an annualized performance of 25.54% when the NDR sentiment reading was under 41.5.

Ciovacco points to this historical relationship to underscore how low sentiment readings have coincided with significant long-term gains in the S&P 500 over this time frame.

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These findings align with Ciovacco’s broader perspective on market dynamics, including earlier observations regarding key S&P 500 reference points that have signaled pivotal market shifts. Moreover, ongoing discussions about stagflation risk and its implications for the secular bull market provide additional context for interpreting sentiment-driven trends in equities.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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