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Jurrien Timmer reports that the S&P 500 has experienced a 7.6% drawdown, with market breadth now at moderately oversold levels. While this decline is notable, Timmer points out that it conceals an even larger drop in valuations, as the trailing price-to-earnings ratio is down 20%.
He adds that both the MSCI EAFE and emerging markets indices are down about 10% each.
Timmer has previously examined the connection between sharp oil price increases and equity declines. In a recent analysis, he reviewed years such as 1973 and 2022 in discussing how sudden oil price spikes have been linked to notable market drawdowns. The research adds historical context to the current pullback in equity valuations.