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Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights the connection between the U.S. stake in the yen and U.S. Treasury yields.
He explains that a prolonged defense of the yen would require Tokyo to sell U.S. Treasuries at a time when 30-year yields are at their highest levels since 2007.
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Stahel has previously warned of the risks associated with excess capital during bull markets, urging investors to consider the effects of the capital cycle. He has also noted the ongoing divergence between oil products and crude prices, suggesting this trend could continue as refinery capacity adjusts. His recent comments on U.S. Treasury yields and the yen defense build on his history of addressing supply, capacity, and market pressures.