Telus completes reset dividend and ends reinvestment discount: Can T sustain upside momentum?

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Telus up 3.09% today to C$11.36

Highlights

TELUS reduced its quarterly dividend to C$0.1875 per share and ended its reinvestment plan discount to prioritize debt reduction.
The company reported a significant second-quarter net loss driven by a non-cash impairment at TELUS Digital and declines in core service metrics.
TELUS stock gained 3.09% to C$11.36 but technical indicators show strong selling pressure and possible consolidation between C$11.11 and C$11.61.

Dividend reduction and impairment weigh on sentiment amid debt focus

TELUS recently paid its first reset dividend, reducing the quarterly payout to C$0.1875 per share and ending its dividend reinvestment plan discount to prioritize debt reduction, according to Kalkinemedia. This shift in capital allocation signals a commitment to strengthening financial stability, which may contribute to improved market sentiment. In parallel, the company posted a significant second-quarter net loss due to a non-cash impairment at TELUS Digital and declines in core service metrics, while also setting immediate goals to refocus on operational discipline and profitable growth. TELUS has also completed an initial network integration test with AST SpaceMobile, demonstrating technical progress with future potential, as reported by Kalkinemedia.

Bearish momentum persists as oversold signals hint rebound risk

On the H1 timeframe, T is trading above its MA-20 at C$11.25 and MA-50 at C$11.36, but remains well below the MA-200 at C$16.2. The Ichimoku Kijun is set at C$11.18, serving as immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD, ADX, Bull/Bear Power, and Awesome Oscillator all indicate prevailing selling pressure, characterizing a bearish intraday environment. However, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are deeply oversold, signaling exhaustion among sellers and the possibility of a short-term technical rebound. Bull/Bear Power continues to confirm that sellers dominate intraday activity, while the session's approach to the day's high on moderate volatility reflects this divergence.

Consolidation expected as bearish edge shapes near-term range

Over the next several days, T is projected to trade in a range between C$11.11 and C$11.61. The probability of a downward move (52%) is slightly higher than that of a rise (48%) within this volatility band. The baseline scenario is further consolidation within the established corridor. Should the price break above resistance, a bullish scenario is likely to develop, while a move below the immediate support at C$11.18 could accelerate selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the reduction in TELUS’s dividend and changes to capital allocation as an effort to restore financial health but notes persistent operational issues weighing on sentiment. He believes strong selling pressure dominates intraday, despite a technical setup that hints at the possibility of a short-lived bounce. Kharitonov remains skeptical of a sustained recovery in the near term, given mixed momentum and fundamental headwinds. "Until the C$11.61 resistance breaks decisively, my base case is continued consolidation or renewed downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that TELUS faced persistent technical and fundamental challenges, with bearish momentum dominating its outlook. The current scenario adds nuance by highlighting mixed intraday momentum and deeply oversold signals, making the immediate support at C$11.18 a critical level to monitor for any potential shift in trend.

Source of Data: T Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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