Bitcoin price prediction: BTC upside lacks follow-through as futures price in Fed rate-cut odds

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Bitcoin momentum stalls ahead of FOMC

Highlights

Bitcoin struggles to extend Tuesday's gains as traders cut risk before the Federal Reserve decision
BTC volume thins and RSI stays neutral while market sentiment shows only mild recovery
Bitcoin support at $91,600 becomes critical if rate cut expectations disappoint traders today

Tuesday’s price action formed another swing higher high in the ongoing pattern of higher highs and higher lows seen since late November. The price not only broke above the 20-day EMA at $91,600 but also notched a third consecutive daily gain. Volume has been rising across those three sessions, confirming buying interest. Still, the rally lost steam and ended the day at $92,700, lower than the session peak.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Aug - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

This stall coincides with a key technical indicator, as the daily RSI reached the neutral 50 level. While RSI has been climbing since the November low, it has not broken into bullish territory. The Binance Fear and Greed Index also responded mildly, easing upward by 5% from 25 to 30, suggesting a slight recovery in sentiment rather than full-blown optimism.

Bitcoin volume signals reduced exposure ahead of policy announcement

Bitcoin is now trading near $92,000 in the early hours of Wednesday’s European session, unable to build on the Tuesday surge. The lack of follow-through is tied to softening volume, which reflects reduced risk appetite as traders step back ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. This hesitation aligns with broader uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of monetary easing.

The recent three-day advance has been fuelled by expectations that the Fed could cut rate today. Futures market data from CME Group now assigns an 88.6% chance to a 0.25% rate cut. However, the absence of strong positioning into today’s event shows that traders are wary of overcommitting before the policy signal is confirmed.

If the Federal Reserve resists immediate cuts or fails to project a clear easing path, Bitcoin may swiftly retreat below the $91,600 EMA support. Such a move would threaten to unwind the week’s gains and pressure price into a broader corrective structure. Alternatively, a confirmed rate cut could revive upside momentum and reopen the path toward $100,000. In that case, the 20 day EMA could serve as a near-term springboard for bullish continuation depending on how the market digests the Fed’s guidance during the North American session.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin traded inside a four-day consolidation as traders balanced bullish structure against broader bearish flows. BTC sentiment improved as the Fear and Greed Index climbed from 16 to 26.

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