Ethereum price prediction: Can upgrades overcome weak momentum? ETH bounces 1.84%

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Ethereum rises 1.84% to $3,029.65 today

Highlights

Ethereum developers scheduled two major upgrades, 'Glamsterdam' and 'Hegota,' for 2026 to improve network security, reduce state bloat, and address transaction fees.
The Ethereum Foundation targets 128-bit provable security for zero-knowledge EVMs by end-2026, with Verkle Trees and state expiry set to boost protocol efficiency.
Institutions and whales have increased ETH transfers to exchanges, with over $600 million in net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks.

Major upgrades and ETF outflows reshape institutional Ethereum positioning

Ethereum developers have confirmed two major network upgrades, 'Glamsterdam' and 'Hegota,' scheduled for 2026, which will focus on improving network security, reducing state bloat, and addressing transaction fees. The Ethereum Foundation's roadmap prioritizes 128-bit provable security for zero-knowledge EVMs by the end of 2026, including enhancements like Verkle Trees and state expiry for increased efficiency. Institutional and whale activity has increased in recent weeks, with large holders transferring substantial ETH balances to exchanges and over $600 million in net outflows from US-based spot Ethereum ETFs. Ethereum continues to lead in real-world asset tokenization and processes substantial on-chain volume, with Layer 2 rollups now handling over 70% of its high-value activity.

Mixed intraday gains defy broader daily momentum weakness

Momentum on the daily chart remains mixed: MACD and ADX both indicate continued weakness, while RSI and CCI are mildly bearish but not oversold. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) signals overbought conditions with buyers dominating intraday momentum, creating divergence with several oscillators showing neutral or mild selling pressure. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and the daily move (+1.84%) occurred after a small overnight gap, with the current price positioned near the middle of today’s range and moderate volatility. This intraday performance reflects some early session strength but is running counter to the weakening momentum signaled by the D1 indicators.

Downside risk favored as volatility contains ETH within range

For the next five trading days, ETH is expected to trade between $2,950 and $3,175, which is consistent with typical volatility at current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), and a downward move is more likely based on prevailing D1 and W1 momentum signals. The baseline scenario envisions continued sideways activity within the $2,950 to $3,175 band. A bullish scenario would require a sustained break above $3,130, while a close below $2,950 would expose $2,900 as the next support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum locked in a defensive posture, with price action trapped below all major moving averages and weakening oscillators. He notes that upcoming network upgrades and increased institutional flows have not translated into bullish strength, as technical momentum stays negative and outflows from ETFs persist. The analyst believes near-term movement will stay directionless within $2,950 to $3,175, and sees downside risk dominating unless $3,130 is reclaimed. "As long as Ethereum trades below $3,130 and ETF outflows continue, I remain cautious and see no reliable signals for upside."

Last time, analysts noted that Ethereum’s commentary around prediction markets highlighted their value in generating truth-oriented probabilities and limiting extreme sentiment compared to social media. Previously it was reported that these decentralized markets are less affected by manipulation and speculative volatility, as their pricing mechanisms constrain probabilities between zero and one, creating a more stable environment for price discovery and reducing the influence of reflexive trading dynamics.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.