Ethereum price prediction: ETH ends 2025 down 11% after fourth monthly loss

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ETH ends 2025 with 11% loss

Highlights

Ethereum trades inside triangle pattern as long bias grows near $3,000 zone.
ETH ends 2025 down 11% despite pro-crypto U.S. administration and Fed rate cuts.
Price compression between $2,900 and $3,080 sets up early 2026 breakout direction.

That broader downtrend began from the $4,960 all time high reached in August 2025. Ethereum then ended 2025 down by more than 11% for the year, closing December below the $3,000 psychological level as the fourth consecutive monthly loss. This persistent bearish momentum came despite several supportive catalysts throughout the year including a political shift in the United States that favoured crypto adoption and three rate cuts of 25 basis points each from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Ethereum price dynamics (July - Dec 2025). Source: TradingView

Since November, however, Ethereum has shown a series of higher lows, supported by a visible rising trendline on the daily chart. But these higher lows have not been matched by higher highs. A descending trendline has continued to connect lower highs, creating a converging triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. This technical formation hints that a directional breakout may be brewing.

ETH open interest stabilises near $18B as price compresses in triangle pattern

Importantly, the upper boundary of the triangle is being reinforced by the 100-day EMA, adding a layer of resistance near the top of the pattern. Price is also trading below both the 50 and 100 EMA levels on the daily and weekly charts, which aligns the longer-term structure to the downside. Yet the current consolidation above $2,900 keeps the short-term outlook open to both scenarios.

On the derivatives side, open interest on Ethereum contracts declined throughout the broader downtrend. But in recent weeks, as price compressed into the triangle, open interest has stabilised around $18 billion. Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio has increased sharply from 1.85 to 3.0, pointing to growing bullish conviction despite the technical stalemate.

The longer Ethereum stays within this converging triangle, the more pressure builds for a breakout. A move beyond either boundary of the $2,900 to $3,080 range may also serve as a trigger for a larger move out of the triangle pattern, setting the directional tone for the first quarter of 2026.

In recent analysis, we discussed how institutional inflows into Ethereum rose as staking surged and network upgrades launched. Spot ETF allocations and the Pectra hard fork boosted scalability, staking, and institutional confidence.

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