Cardano price prediction: More losses likely as ADA trades below support

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Cardano slides 7.05% today to $0.325

Highlights

Cardano wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA accumulated 454.7 million ADA in two months, consolidating control over 67.53% of supply.
CME Group introduced Cardano futures contracts, intensifying institutional engagement, as Cardano remains a top ten cryptocurrency with 36 billion ADA circulating.
ADA trades at $0.325, well below MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with uniform bearish momentum and a key downside trigger below $0.318.

Institutional inflows and governance overhaul drive ownership shifts

Cardano holders with wallets containing 100,000 to 100 million ADA have accumulated around 454.7 million ADA over the past two months, consolidating control of 67.53% of the circulating supply. The Cardano blockchain has entered a new governance phase following the ratification of a stricter constitution on January 24, 2026, with a 79% approval from delegated representatives. CME Group has announced the launch of Cardano futures contracts, increasing institutional engagement and access to the asset. Cardano remains among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with about 36 billion ADA in circulation.

Bearish momentum deepens as ADA nears dynamic resistance

The nearest dynamic resistance for ADA is the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.382, while support is absent at current levels. Momentum indicators remain negative: daily MACD and ADX reflect sustained bearish signals, while RSI at 37.5, Stochastic RSI at 8.3, and CCI at -111.7 all show oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator confirm continued seller dominance in the intraday session, with no notable divergence or shifts in trend.

Limited upside as negative trends signal further price weakness

The expected ADA price range for the coming week is $0.318 to $0.352, determined by typical volatility and prevailing levels. The probability of an upside move is low, under 20%, while further weakness is much more likely based on the alignment of negative trend and momentum indicators. The baseline scenario is for price consolidation within this sideways band, with a bullish scenario requiring a sustained move above $0.382 and a bearish breakdown signaled by a fall below $0.318, potentially resuming downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Cardano locked in a clear downtrend below all major moving averages. He notes that recent accumulation by large holders and the arrival of Cardano futures signal some long-term interest, but technical momentum and sentiment remain negative. Resistance sits at $0.382, and the lack of support nearby limits upside prospects. "Base case remains sideways within $0.318–$0.352 — I would not expect a rally unless $0.382 is reclaimed with clear momentum."

Last time, analysts noted that Cardano is trading below all major moving averages with persistent bearish momentum indicated by trend and momentum signals such as MACD, ADX, and RSI, while large-scale accumulations by whales contrast with falling ecosystem TVL and token values. Technical indicators point to dominant seller control and limited support below current levels, with a high probability of continued downside unless resistance at $0.36–$0.385 is decisively breached.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.