Avalanche is falling today: what traders are watching

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Avalanche drops 11.07% to $9.82 today

Highlights

Avalanche's total value locked in native DeFi rose 34.5% to 97.5 million AVAX in Q4, driven by strong institutional adoption of tokenized real-world assets.
The value of tokenized RWAs on Avalanche surged nearly 950% year-over-year, bolstered by BlackRock’s $500 million investment and diversification of on-chain assets.
AVAX is trading at $9.82, well below key resistance at $12.81, with all major indicators—including MACD, ADX, and RSI—confirming a firmly bearish technical outlook.

Institutional inflows accelerate as tokenized asset adoption rises

In the fourth quarter, the Avalanche blockchain saw a substantial increase in institutional adoption of tokenized real-world assets, with notable growth in money market funds, loans, and indices. The total value locked in native DeFi on Avalanche climbed by 34.5% to reach 97.5 million AVAX, while average daily transactions increased by 63% to 2.1 million. Additionally, the value of tokenized RWAs on Avalanche surged nearly 950% year-over-year, fueled in part by BlackRock’s $500 million investment entry, reflecting Avalanche's expanding appeal to institutional players and the broadening diversity of its on-chain assets.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Avalanche is entrenched in a pronounced downtrend. Persistent price weakness below all key moving averages confirms prevailing bearish momentum. He points out the oversold signals across momentum indicators but criticizes the absence of meaningful support, with risk of further breakdown below $9.30. Institutional adoption is growing, yet Kharitonov cautions that market sentiment is failing to respond to these advances. "Traders should remain vigilant — technical and sentiment signals point to continued downside risk for AVAX in the coming days."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strong fundamental progress for Avalanche despite short-term price softness. He highlights the surge in tokenized real-world asset adoption and impressive growth in DeFi activity, underpinned by major institutional inflows like BlackRock’s entry. Karapetjanc remains confident that these developments reinforce a bullish long-term structure. "Current volatility could offer attractive setups ahead — the market is laying foundations for a sustained recovery phase."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, identifies clear bearish momentum with AVAX trading near recent lows. He notes that sentiment remains risk-averse intraday, but the oversold readings may trigger tactical rebounds for nimble traders. Turakhiya emphasizes watching volatility bands for short-term setups, particularly if price reacts sharply near $9.30. "Any shift in sentiment or squeeze higher could open brief, tradable opportunities — but caution is paramount given dominant sell-side pressure."

Bearish momentum prevails as oversold signals and resistance converge

Momentum indicators remain broadly bearish, as MACD and ADX confirm a negative bias. Both RSI at 31.76 and CCI at –132.82 indicate oversold conditions, and the Stoch RSI aligns with this reading. The Bollinger Band Percentile signals that sellers are firmly in control intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator further supports the prevailing bearish trend. The nearest dynamic resistance is at the Ichimoku Kijun line of $12.81, with no significant support immediately below current prices.

Last time, analysts noted that Avalanche remains under heavy downside pressure, with price trading near session lows and well below all major moving averages, while technical indicators such as the MACD, ADX, and RSI confirm prevailing seller dominance and oversold conditions. Immediate support is seen near $10.00 and resistance at $11.20, with momentum signals indicating a continued weak and sideways outlook in the near term.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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