FOMC policy signals — Solana gains 1.63%

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Solana rises 1.63% to $83.65 today

Highlights

The FOMC maintained U.S. benchmark rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a less dovish tone, pressuring Solana and other risk assets through a stronger dollar and reduced risk appetite.
Rising geopolitical tensions—specifically the risk of a U.S. military strike on Iran—have triggered broad pullbacks in cryptocurrencies like Solana, heightening global inflation and liquidity risks.
Solana trades at $83.65, below its MA-20 ($88.14), MA-50 ($115.16), and MA-200 ($161.63), with technicals suggesting continued downside risk and a likely range of $75.00–$92.00 in the next five sessions.

Rising US dollar and geopolitical risks drive sustained crypto selloff

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained U.S. benchmark interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% but signaled a less dovish outlook, enhancing the U.S. dollar and reducing global risk appetite, which has pressured Solana and other risk assets. Heightened geopolitical risk has emerged as the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Iran by the Trump administration rises, causing broad pullbacks in major cryptocurrencies including Solana; such conflict would trigger global inflation and restrict liquidity, negatively impacting crypto markets. Additionally, incremental progress in White House discussions over the crypto market structure bill introduces ongoing policy uncertainty for Solana’s regulatory environment in the U.S. Strains in private credit markets also create volatility in digital asset investment flows, while the potential for large unstaking events further heightens market stress.

Bearish momentum intensifies despite intraday price resilience

Momentum signals on the daily chart are firmly bearish, as both the MACD and ADX show strong selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index registers at 34.05 and, along with the Commodity Channel Index, confirms an emerging oversold condition, while Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power is deeply negative and classified as oversold, highlighting clear seller dominance in the current session. There was minimal gap between yesterday’s close and today’s open, and the price now sits near today’s highs after a 1.63% intraday gain. Volatility is moderate, but the tone points to strength toward session highs despite the prevailing bearish momentum, indicating a notable divergence between intraday performance and underlying trend signals.

Further losses favored as bullish probability remains subdued

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five trading days is $75.00 to $92.00, adjusted for recent volatility and anchored around the current price. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a further decrease much more likely given the lack of bullish signals from weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, or MA-50. In the baseline scenario, SOL will likely consolidate between support and resistance without decisive movement. A bullish surprise could see a break above immediate resistance at $97.92, opening the way toward the upper end of the adjusted range. In the bearish scenario, a breakdown below $75.00 would expose further downside as oversold conditions persist.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Solana under pressure from both macro risks and sell-off momentum. He notes that policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension remain key headwinds for risk assets. Despite a strong intraday showing, the structural signals and regulatory overhang cap optimism. The expert maintains a constructive view on longer-term prospects if regulatory clarity improves. "As volatility settles and sentiment stabilizes, Solana could rebound quickly once macro risks ease and U.S. crypto policy turns more supportive."

Previously it was reported that Solana remains under sustained bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages with technical indicators such as MACD and ADX signaling strong downside momentum and oscillators highlighting oversold conditions. Near-term price action is expected to remain range-bound between support and resistance, with stabilization attempts likely capped by resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun and downside risk prevailing unless a clear momentum shift emerges.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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