Solana climbs today: Key reasons behind the rally

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Solana surges 10.23% today to $84.26

Highlights

Step Finance, a major DeFi platform on Solana, was hacked in February 2026, resulting in a loss of approximately 261,854 SOL ($27M–$40M) and prompting platform shutdowns and user redemptions.
Solana's DeFi total value locked dropped 52% from its September peak after the breach, yet Solana ETFs attracted inflows and Bhutan launched a Solana-backed visa program.
SOL trades at $84.26, above MA-20 ($83.60) but far below MA-50 ($110.07); technicals show persistent bearish momentum, with high downside probability and resistance at $93.31.

Major DeFi hack and ETF inflows reshape Solana ecosystem

In February 2026, Solana's DeFi ecosystem faced a significant security incident when Step Finance, a major DeFi platform on its network, was hacked, causing losses of approximately 261,854 SOL valued between $27 million and $40 million. In response, Step Finance and associated platforms, including SolanaFloor and Remora Markets, announced full shutdowns, buybacks, and token redemption plans for affected users. The breach led to a broader decrease in Solana's DeFi total value locked by about 52% from its September peak, while new Solana ETFs continued to register weekly inflows and Bhutan introduced the world’s first Solana-backed visa program, expanding real-world adoption.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights ongoing structural weakness in Solana's price action. He notes the recent DeFi exploit has eroded both market trust and TVL, while continued ETF inflows and new adoption efforts fail to offset the dominant downside pressure. Technically, SOL’s bounce above its MA-20 is merely a blip against a pronounced bearish trend with no underlying support below, and persistent oversold signals suggest sellers are still commanding the market. Kharitonov emphasizes risks of further unwinding if prices breach $62.75, with little evidence for a sustainable rebound. "Solana’s apparent recovery is fragile — persistent long-term pressure and recent security failures likely mean lower lows ahead unless buying conviction returns."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity in Solana’s swift response to the DeFi incident and the platform’s ability to maintain institutional interest through continued ETF inflows. He points out that real-world adoption, such as the Bhutan visa program, supports a resilient fundamental outlook despite short-term market headwinds. The bullish structure remains intact at the macro level, with recovery potential if buyer confidence resurges above dynamic resistance levels. "I remain confident that Solana’s real-world growth and fresh capital inflows lay the groundwork for further appreciation despite recent volatility."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes the divergence between oversold momentum indicators and Solana's strong intraday gains. He believes the upcoming week favors range trading between $62.75 and $74.04, with downside risk still dominant but a tactical long setup possible if sentiment shifts rapidly. Mehta suggests a breakout above $93.31 would challenge current dynamics, though such a move lacks supporting momentum for now. "With oscillators flashing oversold yet price rallying, I see potential for contrarian trades on short-term volatility, but would keep risk management tight."

Oversold signals emerge as bearish momentum persists for Solana

At $84.26, SOL is trading slightly above its MA-20 ($83.60) but remains well below both its MA-50 ($110.07) and MA-200 ($159.41). This suggests minor short-term recovery but confirms persistent medium- and long-term pressure from sellers, with the nearest dynamic resistance now at the Ichimoku Kijun ($93.31) and no immediate major support below. Momentum signals are mixed; MACD and ADX both point to strong downside momentum, but some D1 oscillators like Stoch RSI and CCI highlight emerging oversold territory, while RSI is also below 35. The BBP signals an oversold condition, reflecting that sellers have been in control intraday. Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not currently reinforce the main trend. Price surged by $7.82 today, gaining 10.23%, with a gap up at the open and current trades near the intraday high of $84.42, marking high volatility with a clear post-open strength toward the session’s upper range. Divergence is evident between oversold conditions in oscillators and the still-strong bearish momentum, suggesting that intraday performance is defying the underlying negative momentum signals.

Previously it was reported that Solana remains under sustained seller pressure, trading below key moving averages with technical indicators such as MACD and RSI showing bearish momentum and persistent oversold conditions. The asset is expected to continue sideways within a defined support and resistance range, with low probability of a near-term breakout until significant resistance levels are overcome.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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