Polkadot gains 21.78% as bullish momentum tests $1.644 resistance and MA-50 barrier

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Polkadot advances 21.78% this week

Highlights

DOT is trading at $1.60, above the MA-20 ($1.381) and just below the MA-50 ($1.644), reflecting recent short- and medium-term bullish momentum.
Momentum indicators are mixed, with ADX showing bullish strength but Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index both overbought, indicating rising risk of a short-term pullback.
The price is expected to consolidate in a $1.45–$1.75 range this week, with a less than 20% probability of further upside and increased risk of downward movement below $1.45.

Halving anticipation and ETF speculation drive weekly sentiment and inflows

Anticipation for Polkadot's upcoming halving event, scheduled for March 14, 2026, has driven renewed interest as it will reduce the annual token issuance by more than 50% and transition the network toward a deflationary model. Additionally, speculation around possible Polkadot-based ETFs from institutional players like Grayscale and 21Shares has contributed to heightened market excitement and fresh inflows. These developments have reinforced Polkadot’s standing among leading altcoins in recent days.

Bullish weekly signals tempered by overbought risks and neutral MACD

On the weekly chart, DOT is consolidating above the MA-20 but struggling just below the MA-50, while long-term resistance from the MA-200 at $2.723 persists. The closest weekly support lies around the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.426, with resistance at $1.644 and $1.75. Weekly RSI signals continued buying momentum, though overbought oscillators and a neutral MACD caution that upside potential may be easing.

Range-bound outlook as overbought conditions limit upside for next week

For the week ahead, DOT is likely to trade within a range of $1.45 to $1.75, with the probability of a sustained advance now low. Most indicators favor consolidation or a mild pullback, as overbought conditions on weekly oscillators outweigh momentum. A break above $1.70 could open the door to further resistance tests, while a move below $1.45 would indicate increased downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Polkadot maintaining a cautiously optimistic technical profile over the week. DOT closed with a 3.83% gain, buoyed by positioning above the 20-week average but constrained by long-term resistance from the 200-week moving average. Renewed attention has followed the announcement of Polkadot's upcoming halving event and speculation over potential ETFs, driving capital inflows and improving sentiment. However, weekly oscillators signal overbought conditions, while the MACD remains neutral, suggesting that immediate upside is likely limited. Nearby resistance at $1.644 and $1.75 remains intact, with support at $1.45 expected to hold unless momentum sharply reverses. "Given the overbought technical signals and persistent long-term resistance, my base case for the week is consolidation between $1.45 and $1.75 — unless DOT can reclaim $1.70, I remain cautious on the upside."

Previously it was reported that Polkadot is trading above its short-term moving average but remains below medium- and long-term averages, reflecting ongoing selling pressure despite near-term support. Technical indicators present conflicting signals—MACD shows strong sell, RSI is slightly bullish, but overbought oscillators and persistent downside volatility constrain upside, with key support at $1.426 and resistance near $1.65.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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