Solana price prediction: Bearish setup lingers as SOL climbs above $86

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Solana rises 3.38% today to $86.60

Highlights

U.S. spot Solana ETFs saw their largest daily outflow on March 9, but total inflows since July 2025 remain above $1.45 billion with institutional participation exceeding 50%.
Solana's ecosystem momentum is underscored by surpassing Ethereum in wallet count, exceeding $650 billion in stablecoin volume, and forging payments partnerships with Visa, Stripe, and WorldPay.
Solana trades with short-term bullish momentum yet remains in a medium- and long-term downtrend, with price expected to range between $78.00 and $95.00 amid higher risk of further declines.

ETF outflows and institutional flows shift as Solana ecosystem expands

U.S. spot Solana ETFs posted their largest single-day outflow to date on March 9, with a reduction of 68,933 SOL, although net inflows over the week and month remain positive and total ETF inflows since July 2025 have surpassed $1.45 billion. More than $800 million in Solana is now held by U.S. spot ETFs, with institutional investors making up over half of these inflows. In derivatives, open interest rose above $5 billion with notable liquidations concentrated in long positions. Meanwhile, Solana recently exceeded Ethereum in wallet count for tokenized assets, passed $650 billion in stablecoin transaction volume, and participated in a milestone insurance premium payment using PayPal USD, all supported by partnerships with Visa, Stripe, and WorldPay.

Mixed technical signals highlight intraday buys against prevailing bearish momentum

Momentum indicators for SOL show mixed signals: the MACD on the daily chart is a strong sell while ADX confirms a firm downtrend, yet Bull/Bear Power points to overwhelming intraday buying. The RSI and Commodity Channel Index both read neutral to slightly negative, and the Stochastic RSI offers a buy signal but is close to the overbought zone. Price has posted a 3.38% intraday gain, trading close to the session's high of $86.90, reflecting a moderate bout of volatility. The Ichimoku Kijun at $84.84 serves as immediate support, with broader instability suggested by mixed momentum and oscillator readings.

Low breakout odds as broad bearish signals constrain SOL’s trading range

For the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is $78.00 – $95.00, based on recent price behavior and technical levels. Major weekly signals from Moving Averages, the MACD, ADX, and RSI remain consistently bearish, implying a less than 20% probability of a sustained breakout higher. The baseline scenario sees SOL fluctuating sideways within this range. Should the price break above $95.00, upward momentum could accelerate, but a move below $78.00 risks triggering deeper losses given the prevailing downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term gains in Solana as technically fragile within a longer-term bearish context. He notes that institutional ETF inflows and partnerships add support, but the broader momentum and indicators remain negative. The base case is a sideways range between $78.00 and $95.00, with upside unlikely to be sustained unless $95.00 is reclaimed. "Until Solana breaks decisively above $95.00, I remain cautious and view any rallies as potential selling opportunities."

Previously it was reported that SolanaFloor will restart operations under the Jito Foundation, whose involvement signals renewed confidence and potential integration with Solana’s broader DeFi infrastructure. The relaunch is expected to strengthen support levels and restore upward momentum in Solana’s media and analytics space, with market participants anticipating improved stability and engagement following heightened volatility.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.