Avalanche price prediction: Will support hold amid further selling? AVAX slips 7.02%

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Avalanche slides 7.02% to $9 today

Highlights

The Avalanche Foundation allocated 4 million AVAX to incentivize gaming, DeFi, and NFT projects through its Multiverse program, strengthening subnet ecosystem growth.
Institutional interest rises with an AVAX-linked firm listed on Nasdaq and the launch of a spot AVAX ETF, yet broad market selling persists.
AVAX trades below major moving averages with short-term bearish momentum, expected to remain in a volatile $8.10–$9.90 range with downside risk dominating.

Ecosystem incentives and institutional moves overshadowed by persistent selling

The Avalanche Foundation has committed 4 million AVAX to attract gaming, DeFi, and NFT projects to its subnet ecosystem as part of the Multiverse incentive program. The Avalanche network currently supports more than 75 active subnets and has introduced the Evergreen Subnet initiative to expand institutional and real-world asset partnerships. Additional developments include a Nasdaq-listed AVAX treasury firm and the launch of a spot AVAX ETF, accompanied by the ongoing Multiverse program, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum and high volatility as technical boundaries tighten

Technical analysis reflects short-term bearish pressure as AVAX trades below its MA-20 but just above the MA-50, with significant weakness below the MA-200 and resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun ($9.49). Momentum signals are mixed: MACD D1 remains "Strong Buy," while ADX is neutral and weak at 16.84, and RSI D1 is mildly bullish at 52.34. Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral with some oversold readings on shorter timeframes, and BBP is positive, signaling attempts by buyers to reverse direction intraday, yet most lower timeframes and oscillators stay bearish or oversold. The Awesome Oscillator does not confirm daily direction, and the asset sits near today's low after a sharp intraday drop, highlighting high volatility and uncertainty.

Downside favored as weekly signals reinforce bearish outlook

For the upcoming week, AVAX is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $8.10 and $9.90. The probability of an upward move is low (less than 20%), and a downward move is more likely based on persistent bearish signals across the key weekly indicators, including RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50. The baseline scenario favors a sideways pattern near $9 as bulls and bears contend for control. A break above the $9.50 – $9.60 resistance would be required for a bullish scenario, while failure of support near $8.10 could prompt further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche’s recent price action as a reflection of uncertain sentiment and persistent short-term bearish pressure. He points to the network’s ongoing fundamental growth with the Multiverse program and new institutional initiatives as supportive for long-term adoption. The analyst believes AVAX will likely remain range-bound near $9 this week, as technicals show low probability for a sharp rebound and bears remain in control. Still, he maintains a constructive outlook thanks to continued innovation and institutional interest. "If AVAX can hold current support and sentiment improves, I expect renewed upward momentum in the coming weeks."

Previously it was reported that Animoca Brands entered into a strategic partnership with Ava Labs to accelerate Avalanche’s ecosystem growth in Asia and the Middle East. While ongoing ecosystem initiatives and institutional engagement may support longer-term potential, traders should closely monitor the $8.10 support level for possible downside risk if bearish momentum persists.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.