XRP price prediction: More downside ahead as XRP holds near session high

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XRP gains 2.04% today to $1.35

Highlights

Ripple is advancing toward national trust bank status, pending federal approval aligned with a new OCC pro-crypto regulatory framework set for 2026.
Co-founder Jed McCaleb intends to deploy roughly $1 billion from his XRP holdings into a separate investment initiative outside the XRP environment.
XRP price remains under key moving averages with indicators showing prevailing bearish momentum; the five-day trading range is expected between $1.32 and $1.39, with low probability of near-term recovery.

Regulatory milestones and founder activity drive shifting market sentiment

Ripple is progressing toward becoming a national trust bank as the OCC's pro-crypto final rule is set to take effect on April 1, 2026, potentially allowing Ripple National Trust Bank to operate under federal oversight pending full charter approval. Additionally, Ripple founder Jed McCaleb has disclosed plans to commit approximately $1 billion from his XRP holdings into a new investment venture outside the XRP ecosystem.

Bearish momentum and mixed signals define resistance at key technical levels

Technically, XRP continues to face resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $1.4512 and trades below all major daily moving averages, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Daily indicators reflect mixed momentum: the MACD signals weakness and the ADX on D1 remains neutral, suggesting an unclear trend, while RSI sits in the lower 40s and CCI registers oversold levels. Stoch RSI and BBP highlight ongoing downside exhaustion and seller dominance intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator remains negative. Despite a moderate gap up and current price near the session's high, there is a divergence between sustained bearish momentum and short-term stabilization signals.

Sideways drift likely as upside risks fade and support levels face pressure

For the next five trading days, XRP is likely to fluctuate within the $1.32 to $1.39 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is low (less than 20%), suggesting a further decline is more likely. The baseline scenario sees XRP trading sideways in this range, with indicators pointing to exhaustion but not a reversal. A move above $1.45 would indicate a potential rebound, while sustained price action below $1.32 could trigger additional downside into lower support levels.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, notes that XRP struggles to regain bullish momentum, with persistent resistance from key moving averages and weak technical indicators. He sees regulatory news as a longer-term positive but does not expect it to impact the near-term trend. Price remains locked in a bearish range, with little chance for upside until clear technical reversal signals emerge. "Base case remains sideways to lower in the $1.32–$1.39 range — until XRP pushes above $1.45, I stay defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that XRP's persistent struggle beneath major moving averages underscored a prevailing bearish bias and limited upside potential. The current analysis reinforces this cautious outlook as technical exhaustion and ongoing legal-institutional developments continue to anchor sentiment, making any sustained break above $1.45 an essential trigger to monitor for a potential shift in momentum.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.