Avalanche price prediction: Further downside ahead? AVAX slides as bearish signals persist

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Avalanche drops 7.24% today to $8.71

Highlights

Avalanche surpassed a major resistance level, suggesting a potential trend reversal after sustained downward momentum.
Despite breaking resistance, price action remains constrained by broad selling pressure, with upside capped near the $9.60–$12.80 zone.
Technical signals indicate persistent bearish momentum, with price trading below major averages and next week's expected range at $8.65–$9.20.

Potential trend shift as resistance breaks under selling pressure

Avalanche broke a key resistance level, which has been interpreted as a signal of a potential trend change and may open the path toward the $9.60 – $12.80 range, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Contradictory momentum as technicals diverge amid volatility

Momentum signals on the D1 are predominantly negative: the MACD and ADX both signal bearishness with declining momentum, while the RSI sits slightly below neutral at 47.66 and CCI is near neutral at -44.08. Stoch RSI stands at 66.80, not indicating a clear overbought or oversold state, and the BBP delivers a "Strong Buy" reading, pointing to mild buyer activity during the day despite the overall decline — a notable divergence from momentum signals. The Awesome Oscillator gives a neutral view. Today’s session saw no price gap at the open ($9.13, after a prior close of $9.39), with the price now near the session's low ($8.66 – $9.19 range) after a sharp 7.24% intraday retreat and high volatility, showing heavy pressure post-open and a clear bearish tone.

Bearish continuation likely given volatility and downside alignment

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $8.65 to $9.20, in line with current volatility and recent market structure. The probability of further decline is very high (more than 80%), with an upswing seen as less likely. Baseline scenario assumes continued sideways trading between recent lows and resistance. A bullish scenario unfolds if AVAX breaks above $9.46, which could target the upper end of the range. Conversely, renewed bearish momentum below $8.65 may accelerate declines, as both daily and weekly indicators remain aligned to the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche under continued heavy pressure in both the short- and long-term. Despite the recent attempt to break resistance, overall sentiment and macro drivers remain bearish. He believes that only a clear breakout above $9.46 would change the outlook meaningfully. For now, the constructive scenario remains a secondary probability. "I am cautiously optimistic, but the real potential for an upmove will not be confirmed until we see sustained strength above $9.46."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche continued to face strong long-term bearish pressure despite ecosystem developments and institutional interest. With fresh momentum signals and volatility reinforcing the downside, traders should now closely monitor the $8.65 support as a break below it could trigger accelerated losses in the near term.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.